Precious metals continue to be a difficult handle with gold having the 2013 trend-line to contend with as resistance, but also having support not far below. Crude oil is coiling up with the S&P 500, working towards a break at some point. DAX, FTSE, Nikkei all remain vulnerable…

Technical Highlights:

  • Gold outlook remains indecisive still with key levels above & below
  • Crude oil coiling up with risk, a break should be in store with a little more time
  • S&P 500 indecisive at this juncture, last week’s high/low on watch
  • DAX, FTSE & Nikkei remain vulnerable to more weakness

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Gold outlook remains indecisive still with key levels above & below

Gold continues to remain difficult as the 2013 trend-line keeps a lid on any advances it tries to make, with a weekly close above needed to consider it a breakout. On the down-side, however, there is support down near 1300 which keeps a floor in it. Trading is expected to remain broadly choppy in the near-term, with a resolution not yet in sight.

Gold Daily Chart

gold daily price chart

Crude oil coiling up with risk, a break should be in store with a little more time

The WTI crude oil contract is trading in-line with risk (80% 1-mo correlation to SPX), and with price action coiling up we may be nearing a one-way move soon. Watch the S&P 500 as it may help provide clues as to oil’s next move. The July slope continues to be a big focal point as the ‘line-in-the-sand’; stay above and the outlook is neutral to bullish, break below and a decline looks likely to find momentum.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

US crude oil daily price chart

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S&P 500 indecisive at this juncture, last week’s high/low on watch

The S&P 500 is coiling up as the price swings since the record high are becoming increasingly smaller. The market could drift sideways first, though, before making a break for it one way or another. Watch last week’s high/low at 2789/647 for directional cues.

A breakout above last week’s high will quickly bring the record high back into focus, while a break below the weekly low will likely spark jitters and more selling. A breakdown would put stress on the Feb 2016 trend-line and 200-day MA, which are in nearly exact alignment at this time.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

s&p 500 daily price chart

The FTSE, DAX, and Nikkei all remain vulnerable on dips in risk as their charts are all still pointed lower and the indices sitting a lot closer to recent swing lows than highs. The S&P may weaken or move sideways while this group of major global markets probes recent lows or worse.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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