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Trading Outlook for Next Week: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Yen, Crosses & More

Trading Outlook for Next Week: EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Yen, Crosses & More

2018-03-02 12:18:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

Several currencies are trying to rebound against USD, but lower-highs following peaks could bring more weakness soon. EUR/USD, NZD/USD were just a couple of the pairs we focused on. Yen has been very strong as risk-off hits markets again, more gains seen ahead.

Technical Highlights:

  • USD weakness seen as temporary, EUR/USD & NZD/USD lower-highs after tops
  • Yen remains well-bid, looking for more strength vs. currencies across the board

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

USD weakness seen as temporary, EUR/USD & NZD/USD lower-highs after tops

EUR/USD is currently getting a lift from around the May 2016 slope, but after double-topping around the 2008 trend-line a lower-high could soon be in the works. Should we see the bounce fizzle and the euro roll back over, a serious test (or break) of major support could soon be in the works. The area just beneath 12100 has the 2017 breakout level and trend-line from April.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Double-top, lower high?)

EUR/USD double-top at 2008 trend-line, lower high could be in the works

NZD/USD could soon make good on a double-top of its own from over the 7400-threshold. It has good support down to 7176, but it’s in jeopardy of breaking soon. Like EUR/USD a lower-high following a double-top could take shape. Looking below 7176 (price support in confluence with the 200-day MA) there isn’t much preventing kiwi from dropping sharply.

NZD/USD Daily Chart (Double-top, lower high?)

NZD/USD daily price chart with double top, lower high scenario

Yen remains well-bid, looking for more strength vs. currencies across the board

Yen has been a monster across the board. USD/JPY continues to look headed towards the 101/100 area following a rejection from resistance. If risk-off becomes increasingly pervasive, look for the pair along with yen-crosses to accelerate lower.

On Wednesday, GBP/JPY broke a big confluence of support and looks headed much lower. There is a trend-line from April not far below, but not seen as significant. Looking for a move to potentially unfold to sub-14000. For more details, check out the GBP/JPY trade set-up.

See how current positioning in various pairs could impact their next moves on the IG Client Sentiment page.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart (Broke big support)

GBP/JPY daily price chart, trading below big support

AUD/JPY has support right around the 8178/8145-area (current levels), but at risk of breaking. Intermediate-term target on a break lies in the vicinity of 7700/600. EUR/JPY has support levels arriving at 12937, then 12760, but also seen as likely to head much lower.

And More...

We also looked at USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/JPY, AUD/NZD, USD/ZAR, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei, S&P 500, and gold. For the full outlook, please see the video above…

Resources for FX Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.