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Trading Outlook for USD-pairs, GBP/JPY, and Euro & Yen Cross-rates

Trading Outlook for USD-pairs, GBP/JPY, and Euro & Yen Cross-rates

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The US dollar is at a pivotal point versus several major currencies, making the next move potentially pivotal for its outlook. We looked at the weak positioning of several JPY crosses, with particular attention on GBP/JPY. There are a couple of euro crosses could soon be in the move.

Technical Highlights:

  • USD-pairs at pivotal spots, EUR/USD sitting on notable support
  • Yen pairs remain weak, GBP/JPY dropping towards major support zone
  • EUR/CAD & EUR/AUD, may be nearing moves

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

USD-pairs at a pivotal spots, EUR/USD sitting on notable support

Several major USD-pairs are at pivotal spots, including GBP/USD (13860/790), AUD/USD (7780/30), NZD/USD (7217/174), USD/CHF (9420/70), and USD/JPY (10732/90). EUR/USD, which is at a major focal point right now, as well.

EUR/USD is currently trading around an important slope extending over from May 2016 and the monthly low at 12204. A break below the monthly low could act as confirmation of a double-top at the 2008 trend-line, but it won’t be without further support not far below as the 2017 breakout high and trend-line from April are currently in confluence just under 12100.

The long-term trend-line coupled with a still generally rising euro make for tricky positioning. Long-term resistance exerting its downward force suggests an intermediate-term high may be in, but the upward trend suggests it could still trade higher. The confluence of support under 12100 will be very important to the broader outlook should the euro trade down there. For now, it’s in a bit of limbo.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (at support)

EUR/USD daily chart at support

Yen pairs remain weak, GBP/JPY dropping towards major support zone

The yen pairs we looked at (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, and AUD/JPY) are all pointed south. But the one of particular interest is GBP/JPY. The cross has a very important price zone from 148 down to 147 about to come under fire.

The zone consists of horizontal price dating back to December 2016, a trend-line from October 2016, and the 200-day running through the thick of it all. How GBP/JPY reacts once in the zone will be very important, as a hold keeps the broader trend intact, while a break (in-line with a broad JPY rally) will bring in the possibility of a break all the way down towards 140.

See how current positioning in various pairs could impact their next moves on the IG Client Sentiment page.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart (support zone)

GBP/JPY daily chart nearing big support zone

EUR/CAD & EUR/AUD, may be nearing moves

EUR/CAD is becoming volatile in the 15500/700 range, with several angles of resistance dating back as far as 2008 are coming together. It’s an area we discussed last week, and if we see a breakdown below 15507 take shape, then the cross could start to move aggressively lower.

Earlier in the month EUR/AUD looked headed for a reversal, then after not trading lower it looked like a bullish consolidation. Now, it looks like it could go either way, which is why we’re looking to the wedge developing on the 4-hr.

It has a slight downward bias to it given the descending nature of it, but we certainly need to wait for a breakout before running with either direction. A 4-hr closing bar (daily even better) below 15606 should kick off a slide lower, while a break off the trend-line off the monthly high will be viewed as kicking off a bullish continuation of the move higher from last month.

EUR/AUD 4-hr Chart (wedge forming)

EUR/AUD 4hr chart with wedge forming

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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