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Short-term Trading Outlook for USD, Euro, Yen & Various Cross-rates

Short-term Trading Outlook for USD, Euro, Yen & Various Cross-rates

2018-02-21 12:05:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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The bounce in USD is at an important near-term cross-road, with EUR/USD testing trend-line support as well as other USD-pairs at key inflection points. USD/JPY bounce may be over, CHF/JPY heading for a breakdown. EUR/CAD and others examined…

Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) at trend resistance, EUR/USD at support
  • Yen decline might be nearing an end; USD/JPY, CHF/JPY in focus
  • EUR/CAD at confluence of resistance, waiting on bullish channel break

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

US Dollar Index (DXY) at trend resistance, EUR/USD at support

Since putting in a low on Friday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has undergone what appears to only be a corrective bounce. The rally has brought it to trend-line resistance, with its largest constituent, EUR/USD, declining into trend-line support.

Initially looking for the euro to hold trend support and push higher. If it does, there is significant resistance, though, via the 2008 trend-line which has put a lid on an advance three times in less than a month. A scenario we discussed, was for EUR/USD to wedge up between the 2008 trend-line and December trend-line before making a strong one-way move.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD daily price chart with trend-lines

Yen decline might be nearing an end; USD/JPY, CHF/JPY in focus

USD/JPY has put in a nice-sized bounce since Friday morning, but is up against a strong amount of resistance from 10740 to 10810 (short-term trend-line, underside of 2012 trend-line, horizontal price level). The rally in JPY looks like it is ready to stall, bringing a couple of cross-rates into focus.

Is volatility shaking your confidence? Check out this guide, Building Confidence in Trading.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY price chart, at resistance

CHF/JPY is trading right around a trend-line from September 2016 and just above one dating back to November. A break of the 2016 trend-line is likely to lead to a break of the shorter-term line. Adding to this notion is the development of a descending wedge on the 4-hr chart. A decline will bring pressure on lows created from November to January from 11373 down to 11295.

CHF/JPY 4-hr Chart

CHF/JPY 4-hr chart with descending wedge

EUR/CAD at confluence of resistance, waiting on bullish channel break

EUR/CAD is trading a trio of resistance lines; 2008 trend-line (drawn at 2 angles), top-side from September 2016, and a top-side from August 2017. The confluence is formidable, but for confirmation that the path of least resistance has turned lower looking for the bullish channel structure on the 4-hr to break, first. A rejection of resistance, break of bullish trend structure should have the cross moving in reverse.

EUR/CAD Daily Chart

EUR/CAD daily chart at confluence of resistance

EUR/CAD 4-hr Chart

EUR/CAD 4-hr chart with bullish channel

Other pairs we looked at included: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USDCAD, USD/CHF, AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/ZAR, and a few others. For technical and trading considerations, please see the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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