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UK Inflation Data Suggest No Further Rate Rises Near-Term

UK Inflation Data Suggest No Further Rate Rises Near-Term

Martin Essex, MSTA,

Talking Points:

- UK inflation data for December show core inflation below expectations, pushing another rate rise in the UK further into the future.

- However, GBP remains in an upward trend against USD and further Pound appreciation continues to look likely.

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UK inflation data for December, released Tuesday, showed headline CPI in line with expectations: month/month the increase was 0.4%, as predicted, and year/year the increase was 3.0%, also as predicted and down from the previous 3.1%.

However, the core inflation figures were weaker than forecast, with the increase month/month at 0.3% rather than 0.4% and the rise year/year at 2.5% rather than 2.6%. That pushes the prospect of another interest rate rise in the UK further into the future.

In the currency markets, GBP/USD fell on the data. However, it remains in upward trend and further gains seem likely for the pair despite the latest figures.

GBP/USD Price Chart Five-Minute Timeframe (January 16, 2018)

Chart by IG

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.