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The US dollar is declining across the board, strengthening the backdrop to own currencies versus the greenback, particularly the euro. USD/ZAR is failing to find buyers and could soon resume lower. Precious metals continue to propel higher, more gains likely to come.

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Technical Highlights:

  • USD is weak across the board, EUR/USD breakout unfolding
  • USD/ZAR weak bounce bringing a wedge into view
  • Path of least resistance for gold & silver looks higher

USD weak across the board, EUR/USD breakout unfolding

The US dollar is exhibiting weakness pretty much everywhere you look. EUR/USD is on the verge of a confirmed breakout above the 2017 high should it close above today above 12092. On a close above, we will look to it as support on weakness. A minor pivot from 2014 at 12247 is eyed as potential resistance, but the 2008 trend-line over 12500 could be the next major stopping point.

EUR/USD: Daily

EUR/USD daily price chart

GBP/USD is very near a big point of resistance at 13659, which constitutes last year’s high and the gap-fill on the Monday following the ‘Brexit’ vote. Beyond there, attention will be on resistance at 13846. USD/JPY continues to decline out of a broken triangle, with support coming in at 11084, then the September 2016 trend-line near the 11000-mark.

USDCAD was rejected yesterday on a rest of the 2012 slope, and along with the broader theme of a weak dollar it looks poised for more weakness. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both quite strong, but small pullbacks into trend-line support from December could offer spots to enter long.

USD/ZAR weak bounce bringing a wedge into view

This isn’t a pair we look at every day, but the weak price action morphing into a wedge below resistance could kick off another leg lower soon. It could use a little more development, but on further weakness the target is the 2008 spike-high (which acted as support in 2015); this arrives around 11.85.

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis see the DailyFX Q1 Forecasts

USD/ZAR: 4-hr

USD/ZAR 4hr price chart

In FX, we also looked at USD/SEK, USD/MXN, USD/INR, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and GBP/AUD.

Path of least resistance for gold & silver still higher

Precious metals are getting a lift on the back of a weak USD and look poised to continue to gain further ground. Gold has a trend-line from 2013 around the 1340-mark, then the 2017 high at 1357. Silver has good trend-line support around the 200-day at 16.89, needs to clear through the 17.40s to continue higher. Favoring gold more at the moment.

Gold: Daily

Gold daily price chart

We touched on oil as it put in a key-reversal bar yesterday, but it didn’t develop at a notable point of resistance. This takes some of the reversal’s importance away, but still hints at short-term weakness at the least. Eyed support comes in at a slope from July around 62.80.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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