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Euro Correction Continues as USD Exhibits Bullish Momentum

Euro Correction Continues as USD Exhibits Bullish Momentum

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

The U.S. Dollar has started to show signs of bullish momentum on shorter-term charts after another visit to support around last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. In this webinar, we looked at a variety of setups on either side of the Greenback with eyes on the coming weeks.

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- The first market that we looked at in today’s webinar was the U.S. Dollar via ‘DXY’. The Dollar put in another test of support around 91.80 at last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, and since then has begun to trend. We looked into the setup earlier this morning, and in the webinar we went a bit deeper, explaining that current resistance is showing off of the December swing-low. If we do get a sustained break of this level, the door is opened for the longer-term range in the U.S. Dollar to fill-in, very similar to what we had looked at in the Q1 technical forecast on the U.S. Dollar.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, and after coming just pips from taking out the 2017 high in the early portion of 2018 trade, a retracement has developed and prices are heading-lower. We zeroed-in on an area of interest that runs from 1.1837-1.1880, and this syncs fairly well with a trend-line projection that can be found by connecting the November and December swing-lows. A revisit to this support zone opens the door for topside setups in EUR/USD.

- We then moved over to GBP/USD, which is in a similar spot, pulling back after exhibiting a continuation of strength as we came into the New Year. The big point of difference between the two would be the fact that GBP/USD is already working with an interesting support level around 1.3500. We had looked into the setup yesterday in our technical article on GBP/USD, and support holding within this zone keeps the door open for bullish exposure.

- We then moved over to AUD/USD, which put in some considerable strength towards the end of last year. An interesting area of support remains at .7750, as this had previously helped carve-out some key areas of resistance. But, until that comes into play, the potential for short-side setup exists down to that point of support.

- We then looked at NZD/USD, which has shown some evidence of topping on the daily and four-hour charts. The primary point of attraction here would be the potential to get stops above the Fibonacci level around .7205 in looking for a reversal of this recent strength.

- We then looked at USD/CAD, which has had no trouble posting trends to start the New Year. Price action is pulling back, and an interesting potential area of resistance sits around the 1.2500 psychological level. We had went down to as low as the 30-minute chart to illustrate how momentum hasn’t yet turned bearish, but should that resistance come into play in the coming days, the door is opened for short-side exposure.

- USD/JPY spent most of last year in some element of a range; and this year has shown no difference.

- EUR/JPY put in a rather consistent up-trend last year, but already matters have started to shake as the pair has peeled back below a key support level. The price of 134.41 is a key level, as this had helped to set resistance on three separate occasions last year. Prices burst above this level to open this year, but after pulling back, we haven’t yet seen this level exhibit support at old resistance. We moved down to a lower time frame chart in the effort of producing a zone, and this helped to point out the level of 133.89, which had served as a swing-high in both November and December; and if we do see some element of support in this area, the door remains open for bullish setups.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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