News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.03% Gold: -0.29% Silver: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via
  • The Dollar ($DXY) has cleared both its 50-day SMA and the midpoint of the 2021 range. What has greater pull: its roll as wayward safe haven (vs inverted $SPX) or the recent fade in returns (US 10yr). The 20-day correlation to both approximately ~0.8, strong
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) trend from last March picking up steam again. February and January lows up next on radar, could take a few weeks. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • RT @ChadPergram: Biden now mtg w/bipartisan/bicameral mbrs about infrastructure. Says they're discussing "how to pay for it." Adds they "ho…
  • $WTI #Crude #Oil Price Outlook: Breakout Eyes Resistance- Bulls at Risk -
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.17% France 40: -0.21% FTSE 100: -0.21% Wall Street: -0.43% US 500: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via
  • A mildly positive start to the week for the British Pound as it extends last week’s rally. The partial re-opening of the UK economy is giving Sterling a helping hand. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • President Biden: Willing to compromise on infrastructure. $DIA $USD
  • Despite a rise in US 10yr Treasury yields to a multi-day high, the US Dollar has remained weaker today. The $DXY is now trading back below the 91.10 level. $USD
What to Expect Trading the First Day, Week and Month of 2018

What to Expect Trading the First Day, Week and Month of 2018

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • December is historically the most sanguine time of the year as liquidity drains and motivation for breakouts and trends subsides
  • Historically, January doesn't offer up a dramatic volatility return according to VIX seasonality; but S&P 500 suggests differently
  • While recent history points to volatile Januaries, we should take both seasonal and structural conditions to plot 2018's open

What makes for a 'great' trader? Strategy is important but there are many ways we can analyze to good trades. The most important limitations and advances are found in our own psychology. Download the DailyFX Building Confidence in Trading and Traits of Successful Traders guides to learn how to set your course from the beginning.

December has fulfilled seasonal expectations for a speculative 'risk on' lean with a dramatic reduction in both volatility and liquidity. Now, as we head into 2018, should we expect more of the same or will the new year ring in a reversal for conditions? Between the systemic retreat in activity in the financial system over the past years and the onset of year-end holidays, there were clear expectations across the trading rank for activity to fizzle out while market benchmarks stretch to record extremes. Neither longer duration investors nor shorter term traders are comforted by the way these markets have unfolded. For investors, the concept of value has been replaced by sheer momentum - more speculative than most are comfortable with. Traders are happy to take advantage of persistent buying on dips, but the swings are coming smaller and smaller and the balance of influence towards this group is creating a sense of instability even among those whose focus is on short term charts. It is clear that markets are quiet beyond what seasonal conditions warrant. So, will the turn of the year and the natural rebound in market participant prove the occasion to turn the tide?

There are many assets and views that make up the broader market, so we focus on the S&P 500 as an ubiquitous instrument from the world's largest financial market. It also happens to be one of the best performing benchmarks, so if it were to continue the march higher or capsize, the course would likely be followed by the rest of the world. Taking a look at the opening day, week and month of each year going back over the past three decades, there is some statistical consistency; but the focus should be in activity rather than direction as structural issues unbalance seasonal norms. First and foremost, the opening day of the trading year is rarely the trigger for a sudden return of liquidity and volatility. The 'hangover' references often made are more likely a reflection of the time it takes to reestablish positions for large market participants and the revival of dominant fundamental trends. That said, there are examples from the recent past that defy the average. The open to 2016 for example saw an extension of a tentative reversal through the end of the previous month that developed into a steep dive through the subsequent week and ultimately month.

Opening weeks of new trading years frequently see an increase in activity through both volume and volatility. That does not insinuate a specific direction; but there is a natural positive correlation between volume and volatility; and an inverse correlation between volatility and the performance of risk assets like the S&P 500. What has proven more remarkable than even the stretch for equity indices these past years is the retreat in volatility and volume. Given the depths of complacency in the market, the most important feature of the landscape may very well be this combination of elemental considerations. In other words, an influx of either or both is likely to trigger a change in tack in the form of direction. What would happen if we have another January like that of 2016 where volatility picked up as the S&P 500 slid? Would the intensified extremes of our market over the past few years translate into a reversal that builds into a systemic reversal? We discuss what to expect through the opening day, week and month of 2018 with unusual seasonal and structural considerations in this weekend Strategy Video.

What to Expect Trading the First Day, Week and Month of 2018What to Expect Trading the First Day, Week and Month of 2018What to Expect Trading the First Day, Week and Month of 2018What to Expect Trading the First Day, Week and Month of 2018

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.