News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (APR) Actual: 1.9% Expected: 1.7% Previous: 1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.89%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 77.13%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/sV6ncqn10p
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/xkNb1VIrEN
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hxMR9a5jxI
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (APR) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.7% Previous: 1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.25% US 500: -0.52% France 40: -1.12% Germany 30: -1.24% FTSE 100: -1.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/sAj0aetO3t
  • Retail FX traders (at IG) have pushed up their long $USDCAD position to levels not seen in years which has nudged the net long to approximately 85% of open interest. They are fighting that trend https://t.co/eIOcdLiPik
  • Risk trends is the focus to start this week with the Nasdaq 100 dragging sentiment down through the close of the NY session. My attention is on the Dollar as pairs like $GBPUSD stare down major resistance or reversal: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/11/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-Nasdaq-Outlook-Key-Levels-and-Events-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/72GGBPMNcw
  • White House monitoring supply shortages in parts of the southeast -BBG
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/RAtsYwpmXl
Outlook Heading into 2018 – Broad Rise in Volatility; USD, S&P 500, and More

Outlook Heading into 2018 – Broad Rise in Volatility; USD, S&P 500, and More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

With the end of the year very near and market participants filing out for the holidays, we looked at how market conditions could change in January and perhaps for much longer. The focus was on the US dollar and S&P 500, but other markets are set to move too.

Are you ready for 2018? We have Trading Guides which can help you get prepared.

Highlights:

  • Price action in the USD-spectrum and time are set to collide as 2018 begins
  • Stock market volatility is about as low as it has ever been, a rise would lift the tides across the board
  • January is typically a volatile month, but a higher volatility may persist throughout the year

The final days of 2017 are upon us. It was a year where we saw some bouts of volatility, but generally speaking we saw it decline and in some areas precipitously so (S&P 500). Looking at the several of USD-pairs, the charts have been ‘triangulating’ the past few weeks, and given the arrival of an often-times volatile month (January), the timing may turn out to be ideal for a good trading environment.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) and pairs such as EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY are wedging towards ‘make-or-break’ points, which could set off explosive moves as 2018 commences. USD/CAD isn’t wedging, but its recent trading range is aligning nicely as the calendar flips. Today, we didn’t discuss so much the direction (although the lean is USD-bearish), but rather that a ‘momentum-move’ looks to be in the works. Once we see clearly which way that will be, then we can start looking more closely at specific set-ups. EUR/JPY also has an explosive-looking chart with its multi-month range looking to resolve itself.

USD/JPY (One of a few USD-pairs moving towards a breakout)

USD/JPY daily price chart

Enjoy the video? DailyFX analysts host live events daily, see the Webinar Calendar for details.

The S&P 500 during the past year experienced a volatility decline of historical proportions. Looking at daily changes over the past 12-months, at 0.3% per day it’s the least volatile the stock market has been since the mid-1960s. This is certainly a macro cycle of volatility we are in, and all-things-macro can take time to develop. But we may be very near a trough in this low-volatility cycle. It doesn’t necessarily mean a stock market top, but the ride will get significantly bumpier if this is the case. It’s also worth mentioning that at 8.09%, one-year historical volatility is lower than that of EUR/USD, which sits with a one-year reading of 8.72%. It’s very unusual to see S&P volatility beneath that of the euro. A broad rise in volatility in equity markets will mean assets in general are also going along for the ride.

S&P 500 w/12-mo Avg. Daily Change

S&P 500 with long-term volatility

Bottom line: There is reason to be optimistic we'll see an uptick in volatility in the short-run as not only seasonality favors it, but the charts are set up for it. There is also reason to suspect a major cycle low which brings an extended period of higher volatility may also turn out be an important development which unfolds in the year ahead.

For the full conversation, please see the video above…

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES