The euro is declining into a make or break point. GBP/USD found significant buyers at a critical cross-road of support, and positioned higher. Euro and sterling crosses are heading down different paths, with GBP-pairs looking the cleanest.
Highlights:
- EUR/USD is on a collision course with a very important zone of support surrounding 11700
- GBP/USD rejected a cross-road of support, positioned for higher prices for now
- Euro crosses are weakening with a mixed outlook, while sterling cross-rates all have constructive charts
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EUR/USD first broke trend-line support this week, then the last swing-low created on that trend-line, and is now trading towards big support surrounding 11700. This area consists of not only significant horizontal support, but also has a trend-line rising up right in the vicinity. A hold there and turn higher will be needed to keep the euro from further weakness. The days ahead could be quite important for the single-currency.
EUR/USD: Daily
GBP/USD rejected a confluence of support by way of a ‘backside retest’ of the broken 2014 trend-line, highs from the Oct-Nov range, and trend-line running higher since November 10. As long as it stays above 13300, then the outlook is positive for cable and a run towards 13659 could soon develop.
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GBP/USD: Daily
USD/JPY is finding life, but has trend-line resistance from August 2015 which helped cap the rally in November. How it reacts there will be an important tell. AUD/USD is very near trend support rising up from January 2016, but with momentum from the past two days strongly lower it is uncertain how things will play out there. We’ll wait for a response, first, before taking it a step further. A bullish rejection may help put a floor in, while a slice on through could lead to a much deeper decline. Other USD-pairs we looked at were USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and NZD/USD.
Euro-crosses are looking ‘weak-ish’ to neutral at this juncture. EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD both look vulnerable to set-backs, but have some support not far below. EUR/GBP is trading around important support near 8740 and strong close below will have no real support in sight until towards 8400.
Sterling-crosses are all trending higher at the moment, with GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, and GBP/JPY all posting positive trend behavior (higher highs, higher lows). A couple of them aren’t too far away from erasing all losses experienced following the ‘Brexit’ vote. For GBP/NZD that is 20500 and for GBP/JPY, 15766.
GBP/NZD: Daily
Gold has broken hard following the drop below the December trend-line and congestion it had been stuck in. Lower prices are anticipated, with the 1220/05 region targeted. Silver has long broke and is oversold at the moment, which may lead to a bounce. But overall it still looks headed towards a trend-line dating back to 2003 in the area of 15.20.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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