Trading Outlook for Euro, AUD/USD, Yen-crosses, Gold & Silver
The euro is losing its bullish posturing and at risk of breaking down. AUD/USD looks poised to head lower towards a long-term trend-line. A couple of Yen cross-rates are setting up. Gold is poised to follow the way of silver.
- EUR/USD is trading below a key trend-line, but still has 11800 for now to lean on
- AUD/USD is setting up a bear-flag and may be ready to resume lower; AUD/JPY & NZD/JPY too
- Gold broke a one-year trend-line and is setting up to decline in-line with silver’s recent breakdown
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EUR/USD is trading below a trend-line off of last month’s low and is dangerously close to taking out 11800, which if it does positions it towards making a move on the low-11700s. That is an important area of support to keep the euro from possibly spilling lower.
USD/JPY looks vulnerable here, with the possibility of a ‘head-and-shoulders’ forming; we’ll discuss more later should it come to light. AUD/USD is stuck firmly in a downtrend and yesterday’s rejection at resistance reaffirms its overall weakness. On the 4-hr chart, we looked at a developing bear-flag situation. The under-side trend-line off the 11/20 low will need to be broken, first, but lower prices look headed our way. The same for NZD/USD, but the set-up isn’t as clean at the moment. We are staying away from GBP pairs until clarity presents itself, hopefully once we move past this week’s Brexit talks.
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EUR/JPY remains on the radar as it clearly defines support in the 13100s and resistance in the 13400s. Nothing doing as it sits in the middle of the range, but at some point that will change. Stay tuned. AUD/JPY is turning lower from underside trend-line retest and horizontal resistance. Yesterday’s key-reversal helped solidify the area around 8600 as an important threshold. NZD/JPY is turning down off a trend-line starting back in September and in the process also building a bear-flag during the recent correction. A drop below the bottom of the pattern should get this cross-rate rolling downhill.
Gold broke the one-year trend-line yesterday. A decline below 1261 should have the precious metal trading lower, with 1220/05 viewed as potential targets. Silver has declined sharply following a break of the July trend-line and symmetrical triangle, and with gold joining the party we should see further weakness. The 15.50/19 area is seen as the next major area of support. For more details, you can check out this commentary from earlier this morning.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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