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U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups

U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups

2017-11-30 20:00:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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USD/JPY has put in major rip while the U.S. Dollar has weakened against the Euro. Picking of spots around USD appears to be of the upmost importance as we move into the final month of the year.

Talking Points:

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- We started off by looking at USD/JPY, as the pair has continued to run-higher after we observed support on Tuesday. We wanted to start off with USD/JPY as the Dollar is showing considerable strength here while also showing weakness against other currencies such as the Euro or the British Pound. By looking at DXY directly, we can see where the longer-term setup retains some bullish qualities while the shorter-term look is more bearish in nature. Picking appropriate spots for trading USD-themes appears to be of high importance for the week ahead.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which is carrying bullish continuation potential after this morning’s response to the worse-than-expected CPI. At the time of the webinar, we were looking at a potential morning start formation on the daily chart that was/is not yet confirmed as today’s daily candle is still in the process of formation. But if we do get a close of today’s candle at least halfway up the body of Tuesdays, we have that morning star formation to work, and the base of that morning star builds around the bottom portion of a potential support zone. This support zone comes from a group of swing highs in October, and this area had served as resistance as recently as last week. But with prices re-mounting above this level, the potential for continued up-side remains.

- EUR/JPY has been even more aggressively bullish. On Tuesday, we looked at prices testing support again. Now, prices are running up to monthly highs, making a fast approach towards the double top/Fibonacci resistance at 134.41. We looked at how traders can plot for bullish continuation in the pair as we move into December.

- GBP/USD is putting in some strength, finally breaking above a symmetrical wedge formation that’s been active in the pair for some time. While top-side setups may prove as attractive, traders will likely want to move forward on that theme with a bit of caution, at least until any additional confirmation may be seen.

- GBP/JPY: Similar to how EUR/JPY could be a more attractive way of playing Euro-strength as opposed to EUR/USD, GBP/JPY may be a bit more attractive for GBP-strength than GBP/USD. This allows traders to remove a volatile U.S. Dollar that may have its own run of strength on the horizon.

- USD/CHF: Possible short-side setup here after a resistance inflection off of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2016-September 2017 major move.

- EUR/CHF: At near-term resistance, but a move back to support opens the door for what could be an interesting top-side setup as we move into next year.

- AUD/USD: Short-side setup from the Analyst pick three weeks ago remains active with two targets remaining. Shorts are not favored at current levels as this area has had a tendency to show support. Prices need to break through before bearish continuation becomes attractive again.

- NZD/USD: The .6820 level has proven tough to break, and given price action’s proximity to a rather well-defined area of longer-term support, the door is opened for reversal scenarios.

- AUD/NZD: We looked at the short-side of the setup after the Analyst Pick that was published less than an hour before the webinar. To read more about the setup, please check out our article entitled, AUD/NZD Threatens a Deeper Bearish Move Below 1.1000.

- Gold: Resistance around $1,296 held, and prices have now broken that prior bullish trend-line. The support structure we looked at just a couple of weeks ago that runs from $1,260-$1,267.50, and traders will likely want to be careful of chasing the move aggressively lower while this support structure remains.

- WTI: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? OPEC announced an extension of production cuts earlier this morning, as was widely expected, and Oil prices continue to test around an area of longer-term support/prior resistance around 57.24. The fact that bulls were unable to show significant strength after this deal was announced highlights the fact that this was likely priced-in and traders are now looking to capture profits after the announcement has actually been transmitted. This urges caution on the long side.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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