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Technical Analysis for Gold, US & UK Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More

Technical Analysis for Gold, US & UK Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Precious metals are working towards a resolution, but patience is required for now. Oil markets look vulnerable here as the market is leaning heavily long. Equity indices are presenting some interesting short-term set-ups which could evolve soon.


  • Gold/silver remain congested, but could resolve themselves in the fairly near future
  • WTI and Brent crude oil are both vulnerable as sentiment has become extreme
  • Several global indices are presenting set-ups of interest which could come into play very soon

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Precious metals remain a ‘chop-fest’ seeking resolution. Gold has resistance right around 1300 and is vulnerable to a pullback towards a trend-line off the December low around the area of 1275/80. Silver continues to grind on a trend-line running higher since July, and could be in danger of breaking soon. It’s doing so within the confines of a triangle, which could lead to a sharp break if support gives way. But a break is needed first before gearing up a bearish bias. If it holds and breaks the top of the pattern then a rally could commence. But the thinking on this end is that risk is growing towards lower prices.


US crude oil has been rallying strongly, but is vulnerable to a pullback as large speculators are extremely long (new record long last week) around the underside of the 1998 trend-line. This would put the recent ‘neckline’ breakout on pause. A drop below 57 could set into motion a decline towards 55 in the near-term. UK crude oil has been weaker than its US counterpart in recent trade by failing to make a higher-high with it. A decline would bring the lower parallel off the late-August swing-low and recent low into play in the mid to lower-61s.

US Crude Oil/Large Spec Positioning:Weekly

The DAX has been volatile lately, but making no headway in either direction. This could soon change. Price action is coiling up and looking poised to make a move very soon. On the hourly chart we can see a possible continuation-style ‘head-and-shoulders’ which is morphing into a triangle. A breakout is growing closer, with risk increasing that it comes to the downside in-line with the sell-off from recent record highs. If this is the case, we’ll look for a move to the 12676/500 region. A strong push higher has the index back in rally-mode.

DAX: Hourly

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The CAC is working its way higher in an upward channel (‘bear-flag’), which if triggered lower suggests another leg down will be in the works. The FTSE is also in a precarious position and if it can’t sustain higher trade soon is at risk of breaking lower towards a support zone in the area of 7315/290.

The S&P 500 is very near the apex of a rising wedge on the hourly. It has bearish implications upon a break, but expectations are tempered for seeing a big sell-off with support not far below around 2580. End-of-year seasonality is also seen a supportive and unlikely to see the market fall apart.

S&P 500: Hourly

In Asia, the Nikkei is putting in a triangle of its own, and should resolve itself soon. As could be the case with European indices, a continuation trade lower could be in the works. But we’ll wait for the developing triangle to break first before drawing further conclusions.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.