News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/danCiP5vqK
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/JhYoQ7I19K
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BEYupi32qB https://t.co/PWeXE8tZVY
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/t34kotPE8R
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/lM1OIJdjhr
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/6qGEVjDlN6
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/T7iAD0fbbU https://t.co/xVSG7nKIQG
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/HGWZikGQAa
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/2cQ0JgAfh7
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
Dollar Range Extreme, RBNZ Warms Kiwi, Bitcoin Volatile on Segwit2X

Dollar Range Extreme, RBNZ Warms Kiwi, Bitcoin Volatile on Segwit2X

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

The market’s primary movers has been upended. The prevailing bull trend for US equities on the way to steady record highs and the recent breakout from the US Dollar above 94 have both struggled to generate enthusiasm. Meanwhile, volatility through Bitcoin, the Kiwi and oil present at least short-term distraction from the bricked main drivers.

Talking Points:

  • Risk trends continued their meander with the S&P 500 notching a record, VIX again below 10; but junk bonds are creating conflict
  • The Dollar's range has withered to levels not comparable unless we go back to May or August 2014 - trouble for EUR/USD and USD/JPY
  • Where crude's surge has eased back, Bitcoin has seen a fresh wave of volatility with the canceling of Segwit2X

What are the DailyFX analysts' fundamental and technical forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, equity indexes and more through the fourth and final quarter of the year? Download the recently-released 4Q forecasts on DailyFX.

Record highs from the S&P 500 and other equity indexes has become ubiquitous, but enthusiasm continues to elude speculators while the VIX volatility index churns below 10. Typically, an extraordinarily low reading on an implied volatility gauge is good news for those interested in taking on greater risk in hope for more favorable returns. Yet, as has become apparent with time, there is little interest in building up such exposure as opportunity via discounted asset prices, meaningful yield or disruptive value have all but vanished. Low volatility is not always a good thing. Nevertheless, risk assets generally lined up behind the US benchmarks from the DAX to the Nikkei 225 to emerging markets. There is one significant contrast in this grouping though in junk bonds. The HYG ETF has pitched into a fast retreat that will quickly bring it to the 'neckline' of a head-and-shoulders pattern. While this is technically significant, the implications for risk trends is likely benign. This market alone will struggle to touch off a sentiment shift; but it could signal cracks in the system that it may be more sensitive to. It is worth keeping tabs on.

Meanwhile, in the FX market, the Dollar reflects the same lack of enthusiasm. Despite the remarkable technical break seen a few weeks ago - motivated by the ECB rate decision - there has been no meaningful follow through. In fact, the 8 day range on the DXY Dollar Index is the smallest since May 3 which was itself a brief collapse in activity that only found its equal all the way back in August of 2014. This does little to improve the trade appeal of a pair like EUR/USD - that is on the action side of a technical break - much less USD/JPY which looks staged for a technical move of its own (either clearing a wide 2017 range or moving with purpose back into that congestion pattern). This veil of restraint is a market wide phenomena. We should apply the same expectations that it will be difficult to charge movement for any currency - or even asset - as it has been for the Dollar and S&P 500 particularly without a fundamental motivation. The Euro crosses are an important place to remember these conditions as pairs ranging from EUR/JPY to EUR/AUD look primed on a purely technical basis.

Yet, just because there is a general restraint throughout the market, doesn't mean that we are totally devoid of activity. In FX markets, we had a strong - albeit short-term - charge for the Kiwi Dollar when the RBNZ announced its monetary policy views. While there was no change in the benchmark rate, the group move forward its timeline for the first rate hike that will return some appeal to the wayward carry currency. Speculators have shown themselves more than ready to price that forecast much earlier. In commodities, US crude oil's rally strong breakout above $55 between Friday and Monday has left some of its volatility but shed conviction of trend. Is it really that surprising? And in cryptocurrency news, headlines announcing the CBOE was looking for approval for a Bitcoin ETF and an afternoon update that the Segwit2X was scuttled led to remarkable volatility (an $800 range in an hour) but not the trend we would expect. We discuss reasonable market expectations in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

Dollar Range Extreme, RBNZ Warms Kiwi, Bitcoin Volatile on Segwit2XDollar Range Extreme, RBNZ Warms Kiwi, Bitcoin Volatile on Segwit2XDollar Range Extreme, RBNZ Warms Kiwi, Bitcoin Volatile on Segwit2XDollar Range Extreme, RBNZ Warms Kiwi, Bitcoin Volatile on Segwit2X

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES