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Trading the U.S. Dollar Breakout: Price Action Setups (Oct. 26, 2017)

Trading the U.S. Dollar Breakout: Price Action Setups (Oct. 26, 2017)

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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- The first market that we looked at was the U.S. Dollar as DXY was in the process of driving-up to fresh three-month highs. Tomorrow brings U.S. GDP, and next week brings a Fed meeting with few expectations for anything new. More interesting, however, is the Fed’s December meeting and the near-100% probability that’s currently showing for a move around that rate decision. This, combined with the Fed’s persistent hawkishness towards 2018, and now added in with a dovish European Central Bank – can allow for deeper movement of USD-strength. We looked at a couple of different ways of confirming this theme, using near-term price dynamics and their relation to the big zone of prior resistance that runs from 94.08-94.30.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which was in the process of breaching the bottom side of the support zone that we’ve been following. This is likely related to the fact that the driving factor behind the pair’s 2017 bullish trend, the prospect of stimulus exit from the ECB, has just gotten kicked out to some point in the future with little hope for any rate hikes until 2019, at the earliest. This can provide a softened backdrop for the single currency, and this could lead to a deeper retracement in the pair. EUR/USD has Fibonacci retracements around 1.1425 and 1.1215 that are interesting for longer-term higher-lows.

- We then moved over to AUD/USD, which can remain as attractive for long-USD scenarios. We discussed this setup in an Analyst Pick earlier in the week, and in the webinar, we discussed how current price action can be used in a bearish approach on the pair.

- We then looked at NZD/USD, which has cratered in the wake of Jacinda Ardern. Ms. Ardern had the recent comment that ‘capitalism is a blatant failure’, and while the context is important, this is generally not the type of comment from a nation’s leadership that attracts capital flows into an economy. And this really echoes the move in the NZD/USD spot rate, as prices have dropped like a rock through numerous levels and areas of support. We looked at a couple of mannerisms to investigate for the bearish continuation side of the pair.

- We then looked at USD/JPY, which is noticeably missing from this recent strong-Dollar party. USD/JPY continues to catch resistance at the 23.6% retracement of the 2016 low to the 2017 high; and this is an area that had twice helped to turn around bullish advances in USD/JPY. I need to see this zone of resistance broken before I can investigate bullish approaches on the pair; but if that happens, higher-low support around 114.03 can become an attractive prospect.

- USD/CHF is in the process of breaking out, and while EUR/USD gyrates below a big zone of resistance, Swissy has been flying-high for the better part of the past two weeks. A re-test of parity appears to be in the cards, and we looked at a couple of levels that can be used to look for ‘higher low’ support in the continued bullish move.

- We then looked at USD/CAD, which put in a significant topside rip after yesterday’s BoC rate decision. The pair feels very overbought at the moment, so those looking to chase should remain cautious. A test of prior resistance as fresh support opens the door for topside setups.

- EUR/JPY is getting crushed today. But this is one of the few Euro-reversals on my radar, as that Yen-weakness could potentially offset some of the selling pressure in the Euro, if not eclipse it altogether. But – we need some evidence of support first, as looking to buy right now could be tantamount to trying to catch a javelin. We looked at this scenario in yesterday’s technical article on the pair, and because no support showed at the first of the levels we looked at 133.50, the only area of support ahead of the confluent zone is around 132.50. But – if support shows, stops can be looked at below the big zone of support from 131.71-132.05 for bullish reversals of this near-term sell-off.

- We then looked at GBP/USD, which is still rather messy. I need a directional move before I can start to look for setups here. I’m looking for a topside break of 1.3350 for bullish setups to open up and a bottom-side run below 1.3000 to open the door for shorts.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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