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U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups Ahead of BoC, ECB

U.S. Dollar Price Action Setups Ahead of BoC, ECB

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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- The next two trading days bring two rate decisions out of major Central Banks, with the Bank of Canada on the docket for tomorrow while the European Central Bank is on the calendar for Thursday. While no moves are expected out of the BoC, the large expectation around the ECB is for the bank to furnish details around their plans with stimulus as the current bond buying program is set to expire in December.

- The first market we looked at was USD/CAD, which at the time of the webinar was catching resistance at an interesting level of 1.2672. This is the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2016 major move in USD/CAD, and this price had helped to set resistance in mid-August before the pair broke down to fresh multi-year lows. With the BoC unlikely to make any moves tomorrow, combined with the prospect of continued USD-strength, the top-side of USD/CAD can remain attractive.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which is still pinned-down near that long-term zone of support that we’ve been following. Thursday’s ECB announcement is expected to bring an extension of the program while the ECB cuts the amount of monthly bond purchases. The current expectation is for a cut to €30B, but as we shared, we might see the ECB go a bit deeper than what is expected or hoped for in the effort of keeping the Euro relatively weak.

- We then looked at the U.S. Dollar, which remains ‘constructively bullish’. There’s a huge zone of resistance ahead that runs from 94.08-94.30, and if we’re able to finally break above this zone, bullish continuation can be in order. Friday brings U.S. GDP, but we may not have to wait until then for that break, as DXY will likely remain on the move around Thursday’s ECB event.

- We then moved over to AUD/USD as one of the more interesting ways to look for a continuation of USD-strength. We had published an analyst pick on the pair just yesterday outlining the setup.

- We then looked at USD/JPY. This was previously one of our more attractive long-USD candidates, but with the pair currently catching resistance at the four-month highs of the recent range, I’d want to see some additional topside run before looking to trade it higher. A break of prior resistance around ¥114.50 opens the door for higher-lows in the zone from ¥113.75-114.05.

- We then moved over to NZD/USD, which is in the process of getting slammed. Bearish continuation can remain attractive here, but there is a hindrance, as we’re fast approaching a key Fibonacci level around .6870. This is the 50% retracement of the 2009-2011 major move, and this level can produce a pause in the down-trend. This opens the door for lower-high resistance around the .7000-figure or, for those looking at shorter-term approaches, around .6930.

- We then looked at USD/CHF, which continues the recent topside breakout after taking out the double top at .9838. We looked at a series of top-side levels to use as resistance targets in order to look for a higher-low.

- We then looked at Gold prices, which have seen a hit of recent as USD-strength has shown with a bit more prominence.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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