Trading the Majors - Price Action Setups (Oct. 17, 2017)
To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.
- This is one of the many DailyFX webinars that we host each week, most of which are completely free to all traders. If you’d like to attend this event in the future, or if you’d like to find another of our webinars that may fit your trading style even better, please check out our DailyFX Webinar calendar to find the best session for you.
- In this webinar we looked at major FX markets as the U.S. Dollar has showed a steady stream of strength after initially showing weakness after last week’s CPI report.
- We started off by looking at the British Pound, which is in an interesting spot as short-term price action is bearish; but long-term price action may have bullish connotations given that we’re currently trading within a large zone of bigger-picture support. At the time of the webinar, we were seeing short-term resistance at the top-side of the zone around 1.3187. If support does show before the bottom of the zone is reached, the longer-term bullish stance will look considerably more attractive as we approach a rate decision in which the BoE may actually hike rates (on November 2nd).
- We then looked at the U.S. Dollar, which has been fairly bullish since the aftermath of last Friday’s CPI report. Inflation came-in above the Fed’s 2% target, and this has firmed rate hike bets with eyes towards the FOMC rate decision scheduled for December. The big question here is what happens at resistance of 94.08-94.30 in DXY? Is this recent driver of strength enough to take out that resistance, thereby leading to fresh three month highs? If not, short-side continuation remains in order.
- We then looked at EUR/USD, which has started to test the long-term zone of confluent support that we’ve been following. Near-term price action is bearish, and traders looking to impose a bullish stance will likely want to wait for some element of confirmation. This can be seen with higher-highs and lows on the hourly chart. If we don’t see that, then short-side continuation appears to be in order for shorter-term perspectives, with eyes on the bottom side of the zone at 1.1685. The big question is whether sellers can take out the higher-low that printed as the September swing-low.
- We then looked at Aussie. AUD/USD continues to hold some bearish qualities, particularly for those looking at long-USD continuation strategies. The zone that runs from .7929-.7950 could be accommodative for stops on short-side positions, with eyes on .7750 for an initial target/break-even stop move.
- We also looked at the short-side of USD/CHF. Swissy is currently testing multi-month highs after budging above an area of prior resistance at .9770. If sellers respond ahead of the multi-month high at .9738, the door is opened for short-side exposure under the expectation that the Swissy range will continue.
- USD/CAD continues to trade within a bullish channel, albeit a bit less enthusiastically from what we saw last week. The big level here appears to be at 1.2660, which was the September swing-high that was set just before the swoon seen in USD/CAD as the BoC hiked rates. A break above this level opens the door for bullish continuation in the pair, while prices breaking back-below 1.2500 opens the door for the short-side of the pair.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.