News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
Appealing Technical Conditions for AUDUSD and Aussie Crosses Tee RBA Decision

Appealing Technical Conditions for AUDUSD and Aussie Crosses Tee RBA Decision

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Technicals for AUDUSD, AUDUSD, EURAUD and other Aussie crosses present plenty of tension and trade appeal
  • An RBA decision Tuesday morning offers a meaningful fundamental catalyst that can 'trigger' the chart patterns
  • It isn't the anticipation of a change in policy from the RBA that matters, it is the context of the market's focus

How strong is the Pound's climb? See how retail traders are positioning in pairs like GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY on the DailyFX Sentiment page.

Looking out over the coming week, there is plenty of event risk. However, I would bill the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) rate decision as one of the most potential listings on the docket. Technically speaking, this policy gathering is expected to end with no change to the benchmark rate's current 1.50 percent standing. Looking to swaps, we see less than a 10 percent probability that the group will tighten before year's end despite the likes of the Fed and Bank of Canada already moving and speculation of a Bank of England salvo rising sharply this past month. Yet, as we have seen time and again, it is not the actual monetary policy moves themselves that carry the markets. If that were the case, the Dollar would have not tumbled through 2017 and the Euro would not stand as the year's best performance. Instead, what matters is the anticipation of policy through the future.

What would happen if a fallen-from-grace carry currency were to find the market once again projecting a policy that points to higher rates? Of course, it would be a gradual pace affair, but the Australian currency already has a higher starting point than most other currencies' benchmark rates and this market has been defined by a Euro rally that favors forecasts for a hike sometime in 2018 on a baseline that is negative. What's more, the Aussie Dollar is an actual carry currency. Add to that the fact that the currency trades at a multi-year discount relative to a benchmark like the US Dollar, and a risk-leaning market would find a lot to like for the benchmark. Of course, all of that is medium-to-long term fundamental consideration. Yet, this week's policy gathering can shift expectations in a particularly sensitive backdrop.

From a trading perspective, it is always good to consider options for different outcomes. The technical patterns across the Australian Dollar pairs present can present options for different views. Should the central bank spur a bearish view of the future - generally a dovish assessment that leaves the Aussie Dollar in a subjugated position to the likes of the Dollar, Pound and Canadian Dollar - my preference goes to AUDUSD and AUDJPY. For the former, the Fed has intensified its push for rate hikes which offers a stronger counterpart. The later does better when risk aversion is added to the mix. For a hawkish or bullish outcome for the Aussie Dollar, pairings where the counter currency has seen a strong rally lately is better suited to leverage a bounce. On that account, EURAUD, GBPAUD and AUDCAD reflect pairs where rate speculation has driven counterparts to considerable heights. We weigh in on the Aussie Dollar's potential between idealized technicals and the promise of fundamental catalyst in this weekend Quick Take video.

Appealing Technical Conditions for AUDUSD and Aussie Crosses Tee RBA DecisionAppealing Technical Conditions for AUDUSD and Aussie Crosses Tee RBA DecisionAppealing Technical Conditions for AUDUSD and Aussie Crosses Tee RBA Decision

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.