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Post FOMC, BoJ Price Action Setups (Sept. 21, 2017)

Post FOMC, BoJ Price Action Setups (Sept. 21, 2017)

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at macro markets after yesterday’s FOMC and BoJ rate decisions.

- We first started off with the U.S. Dollar, which had put in a quick bullish spike around yesterday’s FOMC statement that ran into the first ten minutes of Chair Yellen’s press conference. But that spike found prior resistance at 92.50-92.60 and has been moving lower ever since. The likely driver of that initial bullish move was the fact that the Fed continues to expect four rate hikes out to the end of next year, even as inflation has softened considerably throughout this year. The fact that sellers came-in at resistance to temper the move shows how bulls are currently more enthused by the potential for rate hikes out of Europe and the U.K. than what we might get out of the U.S. in three months.

- We then moved over to GBP/USD to look at short-USD. Cable continues to remain supported at the 1.3478 level that we’ve been following, as this is the 50% retracement of the ‘Brexit move’ in the pair. This support has seen numerous tests since first coming into play after last week’s BoE rate decision, and the longer that prices test this support the more likely a downside break appears to be. A Theresa May speech on the docket for tomorrow could give us that ammunition for a corrective move, at which point support at 1.3350 and 1.3250 could be attractive.

- We then looked at USD/CAD, which has just run-into the under-side of a prior bullish trend-line. We had looked at this trend-line earlier in September ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. Prices sat on that trend-line until the BoC announced a rate hike, at which point CAD bulls drove the pair-lower. But a subsequent test of resistance on this prior support trend-line opens the door for short-side setups, as we discussed on Tuesday. CAD CPI is on the docket for tomorrow morning, so this setup has some potential volatility ahead. If resistance does not hold on the under-side of the trend-line, deeper resistance can be sought below the 1.2500 area.

- On the USD-strength side of the coin, we looked at USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan’s rate decision last night went through without much of a hitch. The BoJ remains extremely passive and dovish, as inflation continues well-below the BoJ’s 2% target, even as growth looks a bit more consistent. This could keep the Yen attractive as a funding currency, specifically for areas such as GBP/JPY. USD/JPY is in the process of working in a big zone of resistance that rests from 111.61-112.43. We discussed short-term support variants within this longer-term resistance zone earlier this morning.

- AUD/USD put in a big move lower after a topside pop on yesterday’s FOMC rate decision. The veracity with which Aussie has moved gives the appearance that a bearish reversal of the near-term trend may be in the cards.

- EUR/USD looks a bit tricky at the moment, almost like a bull trap. I want this near-term range to give before looking to do anything directional on the pair.

- NZD/USD has been rather frenetic over the past 24 hours, leaving the pair without much of a workable near-term trend. There’s an election this weekend, and that could shake something loose; but until a cleaner setup presents itself, I’m on the sidelines.

- EUR/JPY – Bullish continuation.

- GBP/JPY – Combining the two above themes of Yen weakness and Sterling strength could make an interesting backdrop for a long GBP/JPY setup. We looked at various ways to approach the pair given current techs.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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