Webinar: GBP and EUR Rally Closer to Longer Term Pivots
The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from September 18, 2017.
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In today’s US Opening Bell webinar, we discussed technical Elliott Wave patterns on several key markets for this week. Some of the key markets we analyzed (not in this order) include GBP/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, gold, oil, Dow Jones Industrial Average, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.
As the headline suggests, even though Cable has punched higher as the interest rate expectations climb for the Bank of England, we think GBP/USD is in a terminal pattern higher. Though GBP/USD has broken above 1.3450, we think a top is looming nearby. From a longer term perspective, we are anticipating a wave 4 top to form from nearby levels. On the intraday chart, there appears to be a couple more jabs at higher prices. The weekly Ichimoku analysis shows GBPUSD can toy around within 1.37 for the next couple of weeks and still be ‘normal’ within the context of the up wave.
EUR/USD appears to be grinding in a sideways triangle. Once this triangle exhausts, we would be surprised to see it poke it head up to 1.22. There are two wave relationships sitting on top of each other near 1.22. You have the 50% retracement level from May 2014 to the March 2015 low. In addition, wave C of the expanded flat correction is 1.618 times the length of wave A at 1.22. Therefore, we anticipate a reaction to occur near here.
Taking the EUR/GBP cross, we think the odds are shifting towards new highs above .9300. The pattern appears to be displaying an impulse from the April 18 low, which shifts the bias to the upside. We think the April 18 low of .8297 is an important low and therefore becomes a key level. So long as we are above .8297, look for a resumption of the up trend to continue.
USD/JPY appears to be in the early stages of a large up trend. We wrote on Friday how a move above 111.60 sets the stage for continued higher prices. Absent a break out that holds above that level, consider a set back towards 109.60 to be another buying opportunity.
Crude oil prices may have begun to exit the longer term triangle pattern. If that is the case, then crude oil may soon retest $55. In the near term, softness back towards $48 is not out of the question. Much below $48 and we may need to consider the triangle pattern still on going.
Gold prices have sold off today. We wrote last week how we were anticipating a dip back towards $1310 to as the bullish pattern appears poised to retest $1375. Gold has pressed the extremes of this range dipping to $1305. Therefore, if a rally does not begin soon, then we may have to re-evaluate the wave picture and consider the ‘c’ wave of a larger triangle pattern complete.
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---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M
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