GBP Runs on BoE's Hawkish Twist - Price Action Setups
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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at short-term trade setups in the picture of bigger picture trends or themes.
- GBP/USD put in a major topside pop this morning at the Bank of England’s rate decision. This puts GBP in a rather bullish spot where continuation will likely remain attractive as we approach the BoE’s next rate decision in November. That rate decision is a Super Thursday, which is traditionally where the Bank of England has posed policy changes in the past. After that, February is the next Super Thursday, and given that the BoE said that they expect inflation at 3% or more for October, that November rate decision could be a prime opportunity for the bank to nudge rates higher. We looked at using the 1.3500 level in the pair to base forward-looking approaches.
- We then moved over to GBP/JPY, which is running up on a key Fibonacci level at 148.29. This is the 61.8% retracement of the May, 2016 high to the ‘flash crash low’, and this level has helped to set resistance in GBP/JPY since mid-December. This level had also helped to rebuke bullish runs in May and again in July. A deeper topside break opens the door for 150.00 resistance, at which point support could be sought at or around this level/group of prior highs from 148.29-148.50.
- EUR/GBP the previous bullish trend may have more correction before the long side is attractive again. Given the potential for this theme of GBP strength to run into that next BoE rate decision, traders would likely want to look to avoid fading GBP until some evidence presents itself; and at this point there is none. In EUR/GBP, this would mean some element of bullish price action beginning to show, and that doesn’t appear to be nearby at the moment.
- We then looked at EUR/JPY, which has recently broken above the resistance that had helped to define that previous megaphone pattern. Current resistance is showing at a key level, 132.05 is the 50% retracement of the 2008-2012 major move, and this new high can open the door to higher-low support entries in the zone between 130.40-131.00. We outlined this setup last week in the article EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Megaphone Pattern Shows Ahead of ECB.
- We then looked at AUD/NZD. This was the basis for an Analyst Pick published yesterday. AUD/NZD is running on a trend-line that’s been active in the pair since July, and another test of that level yesterday opened the door for topside exposure. But, rather than taking a setup in the cross-pair, I looked at a USD hedge with long AUD/USD and short NZD/USD in the effort of using this theme in AUD/NZD to take a directional position in USD.
- We then closed with USD/CAD. On Tuesday we called this a bear trap, and prices have continued to run in a bullish fashion since. The under-side of the multi-year trend-line that broke last week becomes an attractive zone to look for resistance for short-side continuation strategies.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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