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Today, we placed a lot of our time oexamining EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. The euro is trading at very key long-term levels extending back to 2010/12, and doing so in a fashion which is demonstrating diminishing momentum. The narrowing momentum is taking the shape of a rising wedge. There is a trend-line highly visible on the 4-hr chart which is keeping the euro pointed higher, but with each touch it is weakening. The anticipated price action to unfold soon is for a break of that trend-line. Looking at GBPUSD, it’s been a beast recently. There is solid resistance in the 13400/500 area from last year, which also roughly aligns with a key upper parallel belonging to a trend-line from which the current rip began. It’s an area of interest for shorts should we see a reaction up there. Perhaps the BoE meeting tomorrow will helps spur cable towards noted resistance.
The USDJPY breakdown to conclude last week looks to have been a bear-trap sprung with the gap to start the week. The gap and strong surge back above support surrounding 10800 suggests we could see further momentum. Each spring higher in recent weeks has quickly failed, and should we not see an immediate decline set in then a change of character will be underway and higher prices become the likely outcome. Higher prices look to be in store for yen crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY were examined the closest). A strong weekly close in CADJPY will trigger a macro inverse ‘head-and-shoulders’.
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We also took a look at a developing wedge in USDMXN below 18, which could break in either direction, but the trend suggests a break lower would make for an ‘easier’ trade. USDZAR broke a smaller triangle and is in the process of carving out an even larger one. Will need to wait on this one. EURGBP has fallen sharply from the failed ascending wedge breakout and broke one trend-line of support. A smallish bounce is viewed as a signpost that more losses are to come down towards a big area of support around 8850.
Gold reversed lower from some levels carved out in 2016 and a trend-line dating back to 2013. Large speculators have been taking down contracts during the recent run at a clip which suggests they may have gotten ahead of themselves. Looking for rallies to struggle.
For full technical considerations, please see the video above…
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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