Trading Outlook for the US Dollar & Gold Price Before & After NFPs
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Today, we have the U.S. jobs report for August due out at 12:30 GMT, with the market expecting an NFP print of 180k compared to 209k in July. Average hourly earnings will be in focus for signs of falling/rising wage inflation; expectations are for 2.6%, up from 2.5% the month prior. No predictions on how this will turn out, but a sizable deviation as per usual will be needed to spark significant volatility. Risk appears that a big miss would cause the biggest price fluctuations given how stable jobs figures have been for quite some time.
Overall, still holding the notion that we have seen a tradable low in the US dollar, and with that EURUSD is front and center as a short candidate. GBPUSD looks poised for lower prices as well, but could be a bumpier road lower. NZDUSD is on the verge of dropping further from a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern formed over the summer. AUDUSD is trading on a key trend-line which it nearly broke yesterday before rebounding. A break of that line and yesterday’s lows will be required to turn bearish.
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Gold and silver prices shot higher yesterday, and continue to trade higher within a nearly two-month-long channel. Gold is near the top of the channel and may pullback, but will remain constructive as long as the lower parallel is maintained. The same outlook goes for silver.
Crude oil remains difficult to get a handle on, but as long as it can stay below 47 then the outlook is for more weakness.
The S&P 500 is holding up well and could be on the verge of a new high soon, but there is one possible bearish scenario (H&S top). The latter view could be taken away soon with a bit more strength. The DAX is trying to cross the June trend-line with some help from a softer euro and healthy risk appetite. The CAC 40 recently retested a long-term trend-line dating back to 2000, and is working towards breaking out from a bearish channel in place since not long after the French elections. The FTSE 100 is choppy, but maintains constructive posturing as long as 7300 and the February 2016 trend-line hold.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.