News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here:
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here:
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here:
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:
Amid Debates of Bond and Equity Values, What Constitutes a Bubble

Amid Debates of Bond and Equity Values, What Constitutes a Bubble

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • We can generally agree on bubbles after they've popped but a lack of clear definition makes them difficult to spot during one
  • The most familiar bubbles through recent financial history are the boom-bust in 2000 and housing bubble of 2007-8
  • Common symptoms can help identify bubbles from supply-demand imbalance, diminished value concern and speculative concentration

Do you want to learn how to trade event risk? Download the strategy guide on for trading news events on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan took to the airwaves late this past week to speak to the levels of 'irrational exuberance' - a term he is well known for - that had evolved into a bond bubble in his view. The debate over whether extended trends from the likes of Treasuries and benchmark stock indexes constitutes 'bubbles' have been passionate and constant. Given that this discussion has continued with little sign of easing in intensity, it is fair to suggest that there is no commonly held definition of a bubble. The term itself denotes a market whose price (cost) has far outstripped its value and thereby is at serious risk of reversing. Yet, where there is general acceptance of that loose definition, there is very little agreement over what the metrics are for such a state which in turn makes the timing a point of constant speculative contention. While it is difficult to identify bubbles in advance and in the midst of their development, there is frequently more agreement after the fact. That can be useful to us.

The two most recognizable and least debatable bubbles of modern markets are the boom and bust of 1990-2000 and the housing boom that crested in 2007-2008 which in turn predicated the Great Financial Crisis. From these periods of time, we can find similar symptoms which may speak to the measures of market imbalance that turn into bubbles. In the early evolution, an appetite for technology-specific assets (shares and derivatives) spoke to the rise of a new investor class that had the funds from a strong economic performance, the draw of performance that was unmistakable and a new phase of promotion for self-directed investing. For the successive bubble, hold over conditions (low rates) from the previous boom-bust promoted fevered investment with financial promotion directing to physical assets in the form of real estate. These seem different points of fixation; but ultimately, there are many points of similarity. In a practical sense, these was an abundance of leverage. The borrowed funds to employ to quick returns may have been directed to different asset classes; but ultimately, the speculative reach was the same.

Further, there is a progression of investor prioritization, comfort and exposure that predicates a situation that grows to unsustainable proportions. Much like the inflation we recognize with real-world goods (let's say a carry), there is a building imbalance of supply and demand. An appetite for something builds while its availability does not increase. That is as true for a financial asset as it is for an actual good. As liquidity diminishes and the recognition of others' appetite becomes clear, the consideration for the traditional yield or return for the asset evaporates. The dislocation of value in turn leads to greater debate over whether it is a good investment and what is motivating further evolution of the market's appreciation. That puts a market more firmly into the realm of speculation which draws market participants that value the hallmarks of quick return rather than durable investment. An appeal for quick and large returns rather than investment for duration and yield shifts the makeup of a market into the hands of 'traders' versus 'investors'. The former are sensitive to volatility and have little capacity for holding through pullbacks. That creates a market that exudes those characteristics of instability. And, see that imbalance an extended or richly priced market, the evolution can be the bubbles that we have seen in the past. So, are we seeing bubbles in the equity and bond markets today? Probably. But that doesn't mean that they have to implode in the immediate future.

Amid Debates of Bond and Equity Values, What Constitutes a BubbleAmid Debates of Bond and Equity Values, What Constitutes a BubbleAmid Debates of Bond and Equity Values, What Constitutes a Bubble

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.