News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/8B8hqHahm1
  • The US Dollar finished off an eventful week after CPI and retail sales injected volatility into markets. FOMC is now in the Greenback’s sights as taper talks linger. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/MHi0lfQ93j https://t.co/4XetwYAaNd
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/ZZRLV0Wkea
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed a bearish Gartley pattern, which hints at further downside potential. Negative MACD divergence on the weekly chart suggests that upward momentum may be fading. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/GkMEkVA7YR https://t.co/E1vyCMVt6K
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1G4lMu https://t.co/2TpkkUu7Hg
  • Tesla boss Elon Musk is seemingly running the cryptocurrency market single-handed this week with his tweets prompting a massive sell-off before today’s sharp rally. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qGci02osOP https://t.co/Yp24Sakrfl
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/LDP3HlN4A3
  • GBP/USD on the front foot to close the week. Bulls aim for YTD peak, while EUR/GBP range is maintained. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/neGBchlJ0O https://t.co/KME51FSF0D
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCrRwD https://t.co/7w5jodyzj0
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/L3LPCph2ST
The Complexity of the BoE for Pound vs Simplicity of Jobs for Aussie

The Complexity of the BoE for Pound vs Simplicity of Jobs for Aussie

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • There is virtue in finding the most simple and strait forward trade opportunities possible, but it can also limit
  • Simplicity can generate immediacy and volatility but complexity more often produces longer-running trend
  • We consider the 'simple' appeal of the Aussie jobs data for AUD versus the many faceted BoE decision for GBP

With EUR/USD turning at high profile resistance around 1.1300 see how retail traders are positioning for the turn - skepticism or conviction - with the DailyFX speculative sentiment reading.

There are detriments and benefits to both simple and complicated market scenarios. We ran through the virtues of seeking out simple trades recently: it creates easier-to-analyze scenarios, it can offer more definitive outcomes and it can generate concentrated volatility. At the same time, that concentration and simplicity usually comes at the loss of momentum. Rarely are critical turning points in central themes that influence the entire financial system decided so unilaterally. For contrast, complicated market events can be very difficult to evaluate (you have to determine what factors take greater precedence), it is can result in various measures of influence (conflicting components) and volatility can in turn be disrupted due to the lack of clarity. On the other hand, these are the kinds of considerations that tap deep veins for the markets. Trends, in other words, can arise from these types of developments.

The Fed decision this past session is a great point of evidence of this phenomena. There were many elements to this policy meeting - from the decision to hike rates to the forecast for future tightening to the evolution of policy to include the stimulus program wind down. There was plenty of speculation surrounding this event, and there is every opportunity for these aspects not to align and to in turn stymie the market's response to the event risk. As it happens, all the elements did align to support the Dollar. And yet, there was not an overwhelming shift in bearing from the market. While there was a degree of volatility, the true potential for this multi-faceted event rests with the longer-term trend it will feed.

Looking ahead, we select two events over the next 24 hours that carry the hallmarks of the contrasting simple and complex scenarios. For the 'simple' example, we have the Australian Dollar's potential response to the employment data for May. While this is an important economic update, it will struggle to genuinely alter the course of the Aussie Dollar's general trend. To change the Australian currency's tide, we would need to see the market's universal appetite for high yields shift - for better or worse - or witness a wholesale change in the currency's own offering. Instead, the AUD data's clear line of beating or missing expectations and its loose importance for the economy can charge a short-term volatility for pairs like the AUD/USD or AUD/CAD. Alternatively, the Bank of England rate decision can alter the monetary policy standing of the Sterling and given a deeper reflection of Brexit troubles in the background. That said, the likely shift from the central bank will likely be more subtle which can temper volatility but offer the longer term trend. We reflect on the virtues and vices of simple and complex opportunities in today's Strategy Video.

The Complexity of the BoE for Pound vs Simplicity of Jobs for Aussie

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES