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Strategy Webinar: USD Majors in Focus as FOMC Takes Center Stage

Strategy Webinar: USD Majors in Focus as FOMC Takes Center Stage

Talking Points

The FOMC is expected to hike rates for the second time this year by 25bps on Wednesday and heading into the release the focus is on the majors. The DXY turned just pips ahead of key support last week and the focus range into the open is 96.80-97.51.

Markets have largely priced in this hike – the focus will be on the updated quarter projections as they pertain to growth (GDP), employment and inflation. Highlighting the release will be the updated interest rate dot-plots and markets will be eyeing any shifts in the terminal (or longer-running) interest rate which currently stands at roughly 3%.

Growth was disappointing in the first quarter and although the employment picture has remained rather consistent, wages have continued to stagnate (Note that May CPI data is released just hours ahead of the Fed on Wednesday alongside retail sales). With that said, we’ll be looking for remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in the subsequent presser for more forward guidance and should the committee site concerns over the inflation outlook, interest rate expectations could soften at the expense of the USD. As it stands, markets are pricing a roughly 50% chance we’ll get another hike in December. Keep in mind this week’s hike will be just the fourth since the financial crisis.

See our 2Q projections on the majors in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

In this webinar we discussed textbook examples of basic median-line analysis and reviewed both current and pending setups & updated technical levels on DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, EURCAD, NATGAS, Crude, Gold, GBPJPY and SPX500.

What do shifts in retail positioning hint about the broader trend? Learn how Sentiment can help your trading in this free guide !


Key Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.