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Trading Outlook: NFPs, US Dollar, Gold Price, S&P 500 & More

Trading Outlook: NFPs, US Dollar, Gold Price, S&P 500 & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Join Paul Tuesday-Friday for webinars, for details please see the Webinar Calendar.

In this webinar, we first ran through a preview of the May jobs report and possible trading scenarios depending on the outcome. Looking more broadly, the US dollar Index (DXY) is positioned for lower prices, a move lower could gain momentum on today’s outcome. EURUSD continues to hold well after a sharp reversal day around support the other day. GBPUSD reversed this week from support and as long as the Wednesday low at 12768 holds then the outlook remains constructive. USDJPY is caught between a confluence of resistance and support – a move could soon be on its way, but we’ll need to see a break of key levels first.

EURAUD broke higher from a solid level of support we looked at the other day, and still looks pointed higher, but waiting for a pullback may be the most prudent approach at this juncture. GBPAUD turned higher from support as well, but isn’t looking quite as bullish. GBPJPY is in position once again to turn lower if a reversal today can hold. USDMXN remains on the ‘sell-list’ as long as it doesn’t close above Wednesday’s high.

Gold turned lower from the 2011 trend-line, the ‘line-in-the-sand’ for bulls & bears. In the short-term, it’s holding support around 1260. A clean break below 1260 could kick off a move lower. A weekly close above the 2011 trend-line would be the trigger for a potentially big move higher. We’re certainly at an interesting juncture. Continuing to take cues off gold for our outlook on silver.

Crude oil continues to sell off in line with the outlook discussed on Wednesday. The area around 47 is important in the near-term. Looking at the big-picture, if oil is to embark on a sizable decline it is likely it will begin to ‘smooth out’ in terms of wild price swings, with rallies becoming smaller in size and shorter in duration.

The S&P 500 broke to new record highs yesterday after probing support on Wednesday. We continue to run with the trend until price action dictates otherwise. The Nikkei 225 finally closed above the 20k mark last night, and has little standing in the way up to near 21k. The DAX is back in record territory, but has a top-side trend-line to contend with over 12900. The FTSE 100 is again struggling to overcome its own top-side trend-line resistance. A strong close above it is needed to turn this line of resistance into support.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

See our quarterly forecasts to see how FX, equity indices, and commodity markets could play out during the rest of the Q2.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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