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NFP Preview: Price Action Setups

NFP Preview: Price Action Setups

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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Talking Points:

- In this webinar, we used price action to look at setups across the FX market ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. The next two weeks are heavy with event risk, with specific focus on next Thursday as we get ECB, U.K. elections and James Comey’s testimony in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee; all of which can be market moving events. And in the following week, we get a Fed meeting with a fairly high probability for a rate hike (June 13th-June 14th).

- We started by looking at the U.S. Dollar as the 2017 down-trend has thickened. Price action in DXY has spent the last week trying to establish support, and we went down to the hourly chart to look at what appears to be higher-lows beginning to show.

- We looked at the continued up-trend in EUR/USD, and while the trend-higher has been really attractive, the pair has run into a rather rigid area of resistance around 1.1250-1.1265. The interesting scenario here would be a quick run of USD-strength bringing in a deeper support level after tomorrow’s NFP print. This can open the door to longer-term bullish positions in EUR/USD, looking at support points between 1.1000 and 1.1100.

- We then moved over to USD/JPY, which like DXY appears to be showing some indication of having set a near-term bottom. The big area of focus here is the confluent zone of resistance from 111.61-112.40. Should price action find the strength to break above this area around NFP tomorrow, this can open the door to bullish exposure, with the follow-up strategy being to look for a ‘higher low’ after prices break through the topside of the zone.

- We moved over to GBP/USD, which will likely stay in the cross-fire next week as another round of elections takes place in the U.K. We discussed the political leanings currently showing in the pair, where a stronger Tory majority appears to be GBP-positive while a weaker majority elicits Sterling weakness. This is very similar to what was seen earlier this week on reports of the Yougov poll.

- We then moved over to USD/CAD, which is currently working with a big level around 1.3500. Just below this psychological level are a couple of different swing points around 1.3442 and 1.3462; and this could further help set risk outlay for bullish strategies. We looked at using the mid-line of a bullish trend channel to help substantiate bullish setups.

- We then looked at AUD/USD. The longer-term range is in effect in AUD/USD, as price action has spent the better part of the last couple years oscillating between .7200 and .7700. Price action just put in a double-top around a mid-point in that range between .7450-.7500. A retest of these prior support swing points can open the door for bearish positions in AUD/USD.

- We then moved over to NZD/USD, which is one of the more attractive areas for continued USD-weakness. The .7000 psychological level is a big area, and price action has been rather tenuous after breaking-above; but should support show north of .7000, there are a couple of nearby swing points that can be used for stop placement on bullish continuation strategies.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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