Technical Outlook: DXY, Cross-rates, Crude Oil, Gold & More
Join Paul Tuesday-Friday for webinars, for details please see the Webinar Calendar.
In this webinar, we discussed the corrective price action in the US Dollar Index (DXY) taking on the shape of a bear-flag. Subsequently, EURUSD is taking on a bull-flag. Yesterday, it dropped below the mid-111s support area but put in a bullish reversal bar which quickly brought the upside back into play. With further strength, the 113/11400 area is eyed as the next zone of resistance. GBPUSD, on the other hand, doesn’t look so hot, but is trading down into a support zone which could help keep it from declining much further, however; a bullish rejection is needed to build confidence in it once again. USDJPY isn’t postured very well, but does have confluence of support arriving not far below by way of a recent low, trend-line, and 200-day MA. A break below these support levels would clear a path towards 108.
EURAUD is holding key slope support extending higher from over a year ago, and as long as it continues to lean on it the consolidation holds bullish implications. EURNZD has been considerably weaker, but is dropping into a support zone which could provide a spot from which a bounce may develop. GBPAUD is attempting to hold a key area of support, and with a reversal-day it will be viewed as likely to bounce at the least. Yen-crosses are mixed, but mostly in a precarious position.
USDMXN recently broke an important trend-line running back to November 2015, and is currently retesting not only that trend-line but also a trend-line running down off the January high; if the recent break is to follow through it should do so from right here.
Gold has been working its way higher and nearing a big test of the 2011 trend-line. This t-line is viewed as the ‘line-in-the-sand’ for longer-term bulls and bears. A sharp rejection from this highly influential line will give sellers a cause, while a strong push above could have serious upside ramifications. We’re looking to gold for cues as to how to handle silver.
Crude oil turned sharply lower last week with the help of OPEC from the 51.60/52 zone we had penciled in as significant resistance. It's dropped back below a nearly 14-month-long trend-line which has been in focus. Stay below and we look for more weakness to ensue.
Equity indices are a tough handle right now, with clarity lacking in all watched markets. The DAX is stuck in a range and a break is needed before moving from the sidelines. The FTSE 100 is pressing up against a top-side trend-line which is keeping a lid on further appreciation. Despite resistance support comes in not far below – stuck between the lines. U.S. indices are strong, but don’t offer a tremendous edge; steering clear of shorts at the least.
Check out the video above for full technical and trading considerations.
See our quarterly forecasts to see how FX, equity indices, and commodity markets could play out during the rest of the Q2.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.