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Talking Points:
- In this webinar, we used price action to analyze FX markets with a specific focus on the U.S. Dollar.
- The first market we looked at was ‘DXY’ as a representation of the U.S. Dollar. As we discussed, this is a lackluster way of following the Greenback, as well over 50% of ‘DXY’ is allocated towards the Euro. So, this is basically like an inverse Euro setup more than a direct representation of the U.S. Dollar. Nonetheless, DXY is showing some element of having hit a bottom, and this could potentially lead-in to a bullish reversal in the U.S. Dollar.
- We then moved over to EUR/USD. Given the strength of the bullish trend in EUR/USD, I’m hard pressed to look at bearish reversal setups. Instead, we looked at areas to watch for support to develop in the effort of trading a longer-term, bullish move-higher. Interesting areas exist around 1.1080, 1.1040, 1.1000 and 1.0933.
- We then moved over to Cable which does look more attractive for USD-weakness at the moment. Bad news has been continually shrugged off in the Cable, and this is often indicative of an underlying sentiment shift as traders and investors use those dips after bad news to buy more or take on bullish exposure. The continued bullish price action north of the prior swing high at 1.2750 adds further interest to the continued development of the bullish theme in Cable.
- We then moved over to AUD/USD. Aussie caught a strong reversal off of a key level of .7500. This is a major psychological level that’s very nearby the mid-point of the year-long range that’s showed in the pair. This could be an attractive setup for USD-strength.
- On the polar opposite is the recent bullish move seen in NZD/USD. The Kiwi finally found support and buyers were able to re-drive above the .7000 psychological level. And if looking for areas to trade USD-weakness, this could be an attractive spot.
- We then moved over to USD/CAD, which put in a strong down-side break yesterday below two key Fibonacci levels after the Bank of Canada rate decision. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz was dovish, as has become usual, yet CAD-strength ran-higher as Oil prices were bid leading into this morning’s OPEC announcement. As Oil prices have come off today, CAD weakness has begun to show again, but for USD/CAD – the setup would remain as bearish until some element of bullish indication shows, such as a break-above the 1.3500-level.
- We then looked at USD/JPY, which appears to be getting back to its previous bullish ways after last week’s break of a pivotal support zone. With price action re-entering this zone from 111.61-112.40, the door could be opened to bullish continuation plays. We looked at how the shorter-term charts and swing points can be used to trigger a trade with a longer-term time horizon. We had looked at this in the long USD/JPY Analyst Pick yesterday, available at this link.
- We then closed by looking at Oil. Oil prices put in a dramatic drop this morning after OPEC announced a 9-month extension of production cuts. This was very much a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event; but longer-term, the bearish side of Oil prices will likely remain as more attractive.
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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