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In this webinar, we discussed a number of markets. We first looked at the commodities sector which has been bouncing back after a strong sell-off. Gold and silver are running higher into resistance, but we’re still waiting to see how they react now at that they are at inflection points. There is an upward channel in gold off the recent low which we are using as guide to help determine when momentum has potentially turned back in favor of shorts.
Crude oil has had a monster bounce, no shortage of volatility in recent months. The bounce has carried WTI up to an important trend-line along with the 200-day. We are looking for signs it wants to turn lower here and work its way lower. Similar to gold, but with even better clarity, there is a trend-line running up from the recent low which we will use to help determine if the rally is over. A strong break back above the year+ trend-line would put a pause in the idea of seeing another leg lower. Again, using the short-term uptrend line will helpful in staying out of trouble if crude is to continue to rally, and to help time any down-move which may be around the corner.
Global indices continue to be strong, a theme on this end we are unwilling to fight until price action suggests something has changed. The Nikkei is consolidating below the 20k mark; a break above and ‘nothing to the left’ on the charts up until close to 21k. The DAX is maintaining an old top-side resistance line as support now – using that as a short-term guide. The CAC 40 continues to digest its presidential election-induced gains. The FTSE 100 blew through a long-term top-side trend-line which had held it in check since January. Turning to that old resistance as support now. Just a bit higher a minor line of resistance may put a lid on the current advance. The S&P 500 and Dow are both consolidating, looking poised for breakouts. The Nasdaq 100 continues to lead the charge higher.
For full technical considerations, please see the video above.
See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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