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Trading Outlook: US Dollar, Euro/Sterling/Yen crosses, Gold & More

Trading Outlook: US Dollar, Euro/Sterling/Yen crosses, Gold & More

2017-05-10 11:50:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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Join Paul every Tuesday-Friday for webinars. For details and a full line-up of all upcoming live events, please see the Webinar Calendar.

In this webinar, we discussed the recent strength in the US dollar, and how the rally could unfold in the coming days. There is resistance not far ahead for the DXY, but could be exceeded should EURUSD drop below support into the gap from the first round of the French presidential elections. So far, we have seen a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario play out and the gap may be at risk of soon filling. GBPUSD continues to look solid and headed higher. USDJPY broke a multi-month trend-line and is poised to trade towards 11500/50. NZDUSD and AUDUSD are still postured poorly and looking to carve out lower levels in the days ahead.

The European/commodity crosses (EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD) are extended and in need of a rest. EURAUD had a couple of reversal days at a key trend-line test. GBPJPY and EURJPY have both had enormous runs, but now face resistance. How they respond to overhead levels will be telling about whether they want to continue to push on through or undergo a pullback.

Gold and silver are still positioned poorly with important support levels yet reached. On a bounce into resistance we will watch for signs of stalling momentum. Crude oil looks headed lower, possibly much lower, but its path is yet unclear. There are levels of resistance to work with, it’s a question of which level the market responds to before looking for lower prices.

The DAX continues to hold strong at record levels, while the FTSE 100 is working towards challenging important resistance around 7400. The S&P 500 and Dow both look poised to continue higher out of consolidation patterns, but the trading may be a bit of a grind with volatility so low.

For full technical and trading considerations, please see the video above…

See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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