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Commodities & Indices Outlook: Gold Price, Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More

Commodities & Indices Outlook: Gold Price, Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Join Paul every Tuesday-Friday for webinars. For details and a full line-up of all upcoming live events, please see the Webinar Calendar.

In this webinar, we first took a look at the decline in precious metals. Last week, gold broke the December trend-line and the low of a consolidation from the end of March; putting the metal at risk of further losses. The past couple of sessions have held no bounce, but should gold get a lift back up to around 1240 we’ll watch for signs of stalling momentum and a potential spot to look for a continuation-short lower. The March low at 1195 is the next eyed target. Silver is in even more trouble, with no bounces developing since peaking in the middle of April. It’s done nothing but break one level or line of support, with buyers fully absent. Looking for price support from here, we have to go down to the December low at 15.64. It’s tough to chase a precipitous decline of this nature, and on that a bounce or consolidation is favored for new entries. Longs are completely off the table until we see a support level show buying interest. Copper dropped from a top-side of a channel we looked at last week, but is now nearing a possible point of support by way way of a lower parallel and price support. We'll be keeping an eye on how it responds here to determine whether a bounce may unfold or if copper will break down.

Crude oil’s precipitous decline halted last week with a sharp reversal-bar. There is solid resistance around 47, which if oil can’t overcome after last week’s reversal should lead to a continuation-trade lower. If crude can gain a bid here in the next few days and clear 47, then 48 and a possible retest of the broken April 2016 trend-line could be in order. Overall, the feeling is oil is headed lower it’s just a function of finding the next entry point. Keeping an eye on how price responds around the before mentioned points of resistance will be the key.

After a small ‘gap-n-trap’ in the DAX, it’s trying to climb to new heights. Often times, even at record highs, there will be top-side trend-lines which act as minor resistance, but the German index has surpassed any potential points of interest. There were a couple of minor lines of resistance running over tops from August and February, which will now be viewed as support. Yesterday, the DAX tested the February top-side trend-line and held, furthering its validity as a line to watch moving forward. The FTSE is on the move through a thicket of resistance, but will soon face a major top-side trend-line starting back in 2013; it held as resistance on several occasions since January. It lies near 7400. The U.S. indices are consolidating well, with the S&P 500 and Dow ready to carve out new record highs. The Nasdaq 100 continues to be the leader. We will maintain a generally bullish bias in global equity indices until pervasive price action tells us we should think elsewise.

For full technical and trading considerations, please see the video above…

See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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