News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.19% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Yx2O1n8Yxc
  • The 35-day historical range on $AUDJPY matches the smallest range (as a percentage of spot) on record for the pair with the extreme summer lull back in July 2014. Will it end with a bang or whimper? https://t.co/StryktBbrr
  • ECB monthly purchases under PEPP appear to be slowing. PEPP purchases for the first two weeks of June only totaled about 31 bln euros $EUR https://t.co/RUAi61HTQJ
  • The EUR/USD rally has stalled at a key resistance confluence around the objective yearly open. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/YdjKTU4gtW https://t.co/HmOJxy2F29
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.33% Silver: -0.24% Gold: -0.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/kRDUQxM66L
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 74.60%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.10%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gwcS9vcLhL
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 close at fresh record highs $NDX $SPX $ES_F
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.17% France 40: 0.16% FTSE 100: 0.08% Wall Street: 0.01% US 500: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/KY87c2N2Ao
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky says that Ukraine has been admitted to NATO. No word out confirming from @POTUS or @SecBlinken. If true, not the kind of development that would make Russia/Putin happy. https://t.co/dRSAUz7t0t
  • President Biden: - We agreed to do more to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure around the world - More work to do to beat the virus; we cannot let our guards down
EUR/USD Positioning Into French Election Shows Brexit Lessons Not Learned

EUR/USD Positioning Into French Election Shows Brexit Lessons Not Learned

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The second round of the French election is scheduled for this weekend with Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in contention
  • Exit polls for the first round have encouraged complacency as it seems the Euro-threatening Le Pen is less likely to win
  • Yet, the disparate impact on the Euro between a Macron versus a Le Pen win are extreme and the Brexit lesson so fresh

What are the DailyFX analysts' top trading ideas for 2017 and key lessons to take away from 2016? Sign up for both on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

It seems pain is not a sufficient learning tool for the market. Not long ago, we witnessed extraordinary volatility following two events in which the market clearly ignored the extreme skews in for the different outcomes. Both the UK's EU Referendum vote (Brexit) and the US Presidential election carried outcomes that would be considered 'status quo' and those that would usher massive change. In both cases, the change scenarios carried even chance of occurring according to polls heading into their respective votes and their realization threatened significant movement from the market. Nevertheless, the market treated both events as if complacency was the inevitable outcome. In each case, the markets were turned upside down for the assumption.

For the US election back in early November, the assumption was that Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton - who was promising few major changes for the country's economy, financial system and trade relationships - was expected to clinch the Presidency even though opinion polls put her only modestly ahead in the opinion polls. The outcome was only a modest surprise in polling terms, but the market impact was dramatic. A charge higher for the S&P 500 and Dollar followed the outcome of the election. The skew for the Brexit was similar in circumstance, but the impact was more dramatic. Despite a close race between the 'remain' and 'leave' camps, the market was heavily speculating on the former. When it became clear that the electorate had voted to withdrawal from the EU, the Pound collapsed. And now, we once again find a proximate vote with outcomes that are the polar opposites in terms of market impact.

After the first round of the French Presidential election, the two most popular candidates moved on for the inevitable runoff. Though Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen were expected to make it through, their potential impact on the Euro and regional markets could not be more different. Macron's platform is one that looks to make few waves for France's position within the EU and therefore poses little threat to the shared currency. In contrast, Le Pen has said an EU referendum could be brought to the polls by September and an exit from the Euro was inevitable. After the first round election, fear had dropped sharply and the currency climbed as the exit polls showed a tangible favor for Macron. While the probabilities are more significantly skewed compared to the Brexit or US election, the severity of the unexpected outcome is far greater. To go long the Euro and its relative financial assets would yield little opportunity but carry extreme risk. Is it worth the risk? We discuss the extreme skew in potential and risk/reward potential for the French runoff election along with the lessons to take away for similar, future events in this weekend Strategy Video.

EUR/USD Positioning Into French Election Shows Brexit Lessons Not LearnedEUR/USD Positioning Into French Election Shows Brexit Lessons Not LearnedEUR/USD Positioning Into French Election Shows Brexit Lessons Not Learned

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES