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Technical Focus Before and Beyond NFPs: EURUSD, Gold/Silver, Crude Oil & More

Technical Focus Before and Beyond NFPs: EURUSD, Gold/Silver, Crude Oil & More

2017-05-05 11:58:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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Join Paul every Tuesday-Friday for webinars. For details and a full line-up of all upcoming live events, please see the Webinar Calendar.

In this webinar, we did a littler preview of the April jobs report due out today, highlighting the possibility of a ‘fade-trade’ on the initial reaction. Last month may have been a one-off event with it providing the set-up we’ve discussed in the past but been lacking in recent months, however; we might just be in for a period of wobbly jobs figures and market volatility post-release.

Looking beyond today’s numbers we examined the poor positioning of the US Dollar Index (DXY), but depending on how the outcome of the French elections this weekend that could change. The euro, with its ~57% weighting in the DXY, could be in for a big move. The options market isn’t pricing in a move nearly as big as what we saw following the first round, but implied volatility is still elevated suggesting a decent-sized price swing could be in store. The thinking on this end is that should we see another sizable gap higher, this one will have an increased likelihood of filling in fairly short order, unlike the prior gap.

Continuing to like GBPUSD to the top-side, and as long as it can hang out around current levels it should soon start printing 13000s; eventual target is 13400/500.

Gold has taken a hit, dropping below a key trend-line, but it’s been silver which has really been hit hard. Silver is trading well below the March low and with a little recovery time it should be ready to make a run at the December low or worse.

Crude oil broke through a trend-line we’ve been watching, along with 48, then 47, and now heading towards the lower 40s. The move doesn’t appear to be over, but like precious metals a bounce is in order.

The S&P 500 continues to lull traders to sleep during a consolidation phase, but looks poised to head to new record highs soon. A triangle on the one-hour is our guide, we’ll use that (break up or down) as a guide. The DAX and CAC are headlining with strong moves higher; the French election this weekend leaves them exposed to big Monday gaps. The FTSE 100 is neither here nor there and is off our radar for now. The Nikkei has been closed since Tuesday for holiday, but when it reopens next week (depending on the French election) it could be challenging its best levels of the year, or better.

For full technical and trading considerations, please see the video above…

See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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