Charts Ahead of FOMC: US Dollar, Gold Price, S&P 500 & More
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Today, we started off by looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the FOMC rate decision and policy statement later today. No expectation of a move out of the Fed, so traders will focus on the language in the statement for clues as to future moves. The DXY has been treading water after the sharp gap lower following the first round of the French presidential elections. The dominating currency in the index, the euro, is hanging out just below resistance by way of an upper parallel. Dialing in on the 4-hr chart we can see a triangle developing. It’s unclear if this will be a tradable pattern between the FOMC today and the French run-off election on Sunday.
GBPUSD continues to hold steady at a key area, and still looks likely to trade higher. (Trade idea here.) Even if were to soften a bit, as long as it stays above 12600 or so it will still be constructive. If cable can get into gear, the next major zone of resistance doesn’t arrive until ~13400/500.
USDJPY is above a key level of resistance, but faces a trend-line running down off the January high – beware of it stalling there. EURJPY, GBPJPY, and CHFJPY to a lesser degree have had tremendous runs, but these can be momentum beasts and they are still viewed bullish, albeit cautiously so.
Gold and silver are not looking good, especially silver. Gold down at the December trend-line around 1240 would be an intriguing spot to look for a bounce. Silver has been down twelve days in a row and in need of a relief rally, but that is likely all it will be.
Crude oil cracked the 48 line we talked about in yesterday’s commodities/indices webinar, and has the triple bottoms at 47 on our minds. The outlook continues to weaken, with bounces viewed as sales. Looking for low 40s at some point in the not-too-distant future.
The S&P 500 is hanging out just below the March 1 record high, consolidating recent gains in bullish-fashion. New highs should soon be notched out. The DAX also looking good, higher levels anticipated. The FTSE 100 is a laggard, the British pound isn’t helping; charts shows the index stuck between support and resistance.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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