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US Dollar Eyeing Fed, Euro May Fall Even as Macron Triumphs

US Dollar Eyeing Fed, Euro May Fall Even as Macron Triumphs

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar focused on FOMC take on Q1 US slowdown
  • Aussie Dollar may overlook RBA interest rate decision
  • French runoff unlikely to move markets like round one

The US Dollar got an early-week lift as Congressional negotiators reached a budget deal to avoid government shutdown and introduce a $1 trillion spending package. Follow-through will hinge on the contents of the policy statement to be issued by the Fed's rate-setting FOMC committee however.

US economic growth markedly slowed in the first quarterly. Traders will be keen to learn if this has perturbed Janet Yellen and company to enough of an extent to derail the plan for three rate hikes in 2017. A relatively upbeat statement downplaying recent missteps is almost certainly needed if the greenback is to extend near-term gains.

A monetary policy announcement from the RBA will probably amount to a non-event, with officials seemingly content to maintain a hands-off approach. German unemployment and Eurozone GDP figures are also likely to pass with little fanfare considering their limited implications for the immediate ECB outlook.

The second round of France's presidential election may lack the market-moving potential of the first ballot. Opinion polls predict market-favorite Emmanuel Macron will beat eurosceptic Marine Le Pen by a comfortable 60/40 margin. Online bookmakers put the odds of a Le Pen victory at less than 16 percent.

On balance, this hints that an ultimate victory for Mr Macron is already priced into markets and won't carry much surprise factor. With the latest political hurdle thus overcome, markets may opt to revision the fundamentals, and with them the ECB's ultra-dovish posture. That may yet bode ill for the Euro.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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