Paul conducts webinars Tuesday – Friday each week. For details and a full line-up of upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.
In today’s webinar, we focused on global indices, namely in Europe and the U.S., as they look poised to break key support levels. After an extended four-day holiday weekend, Europe came back online, and so far we are seeing pretty good selling pressure. The DAX is treading very close to breaking a couple of key levels/lines we have on the chart, while the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 are doing similar. The CAC is in danger of dropping back below the 2000-current trend-line it closed above a couple of weeks back, in addition to breaking trend-line support going back to November. The FTSE 100 is well below the June trend-line and close to taking out three bottoms in close proximity to one another formed since mid-March. A daily close below these levels opens up a path for lower prices.
In the U.S., markets started the week off on a positive note, but that may be about to change with risk sentiment fragile. The trend off the record high is still negative, and as long as the S&P 500 stays below the top-side trend-line off the March 1 record high, that will remain the case. There is a good possibility that the Monday rally was merely a bounce that will fizzle. We have our eyes set on 2300 with a turn lower.
Gold is trading around the 2011 trend-line, a widely popular line of interest. How it responds there will be very telling. Silver is up against its own levels of resistance, but not nearly as important as the trend-line in gold; we’re taking our cues off gold. The bias for lower prices in copper remains, but choppy price action makes it a tough one to trade. Shorts need to be vigilant in only selling rallies and not chasing lower as bounces have been frequent.
Crude oil has weakened a bit in recent sessions after having a big run. Overall, clarity is lacking at the moment, putting any bias to rest in either direction. We’ll revisit at a later time after the market has a chance to provide a better tell.
For full technical considerations, please see the video above.
Looking for longer-term views on equity indices and commodities? See our Trading Guides.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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