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Talking Points:
- In this webinar, we used price action based methods to analyze macro markets with the goal of scenario planning for the next few weeks.
- We started off by looking at the come-back in the Dollar. Fed-speak has been the driver, and yesterday’s comments from Mr. Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed alluded to the possibility of a full four hikes this year. Even if this doesn’t come to fruition, the simple fact that Fed members are getting more hawkish may be telling us something.
- The U.S. Dollar put in an extremely bearish move after that last rate hike, deductively telling us that the Fed was not hawkish enough to keep support in the Greenback after that last rate move. But if we do see the dial turned up from the Fed in the coming weeks, USD strength can remain as a predominant theme. We looked at price levels to follow the continuation of this scenario.
- In the converse scenario, recent ECB comments have appeared to attempt to scale-back strength in the Euro after the last ECB meeting came-off rather hawkish. This has driven a down-side break below a key level in EUR/USD. If support doesn’t show at ~1.0700 or ~1.0650, the bullish thesis here should be abandoned, at least in the near-term until more information presents itself.
- On the long Dollar side, USD/JPY remains attractive. We looked at various ways to play the top-side of the pair using recent price action.
- AUD/USD could be another attractive long-USD candidate, as the months’ long range is coming off of a key zone of resistance.
- NZD/USD could be set up in both directions. My current bias is the top-side of the pair given the repeated support at the big figure of .7000.
- We also looked at Yen pairs. EUR/JPY could open-up a bullish setup if prices can climb back-above 120.00, while AUD/JPY is setting up in a bearish fashion. We also discussed the potential for a longer-term GBP/JPY setup as a ‘big’ level of support lurks below.
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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