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Indices & Commodities Outlook: Gold & Silver Pullback Risk, Oil Support at 47

Indices & Commodities Outlook: Gold & Silver Pullback Risk, Oil Support at 47

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Paul conducts webinars Tuesday – Friday each week. For details and a full line-up of upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Today, we discussed the confluence between resistance in gold and silver and support in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which puts precious metals at risk of near-term weakness. DXY has a broader ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, which could come into play and underpin further strength in precious metals, but until the neckline is broken it is viewed as support.

Crude oil put in another key reversal day at 47, which makes that level a real line-in-the-sand. The third hold of that level may bring some upside in the days to follow, but not looking for crude to climb much above the 49/50 area if it does rally. Broadly speaking, still looking for 45, then 42/43, but for now we must respect support until a daily close below 47.

Global indices have lost some clarity recently, with the DAX and CAC 40 not following through on bearish price breaks from rising wedges. There is still a possibility we see a decline from current levels, but the daily is turning out to look more like a consolidation. The CAC 40 sits just beneath a major long-term trend-line running down off the 2000 peaks; it goes without saying, but it is at a very pivotal spot. The FTSE 100 is trading near the June/’Brexit’ trend-lines, but in the very short-term the trend is still lower.

U.S. indices still look like more downside could be in the works, with the Nasdaq 100 carving out a potentially bearish pattern. Lower towards 2300 is viewed as support on further weakness in the S&P 500 should the hourly lower lows, lower highs continue.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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