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Stocks Spill, Dollar Drops after the Rate Hike

Stocks Spill, Dollar Drops after the Rate Hike

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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Talking Points:

- In this webinar, we used price action to look at major macro markets after last week’s rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

- We started off by looking at U.S. Equities, as American bourses appeared set for their first daily loss by more than 1% in well over five months. While the wall of worry escalated quickly, we don’t yet have evidence that this is anything more than a pullback. We looked at specific levels to watch for on the S&P 500, The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Russell 2000 and Apple.

- We then moved over to look at the U.S. Dollar. The Greenback has been incredibly weak since last week’s rate hike, and this highlights that markets were likely looking for the Fed to take on a more-hawkish stance towards future rate hikes. While the U.S. Dollar is incredibly weak on a short-term basis, longer-term, we’re still at rather elevated levels; and the Fed is still persistently hawkish for the rest of the year, so traders will likely want to be careful if too aggressively pushing the short-side of the market in the near-term.

- For long USD-exposure, we looked at a very interesting zone of support on USD/JPY. The bottom of this zone is currently being tested, but if it holds up, this could be interesting for bullish strategies.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which is in a rather messy state and will likely remain as such until a new high comes in, breaking above the 1.0828 swing on the chart.

- EUR/JPY could be a more interesting way to gain longer-term bullish Euro exposure; as this removes the issue of short-USD exposure as the Fed moves deeper into a ‘rising rate environment’.

- GBP/USD is catching a strong bid this morning after inflation data came out higher-than-expected. The longer-term setup is still a range; but if the trend in inflation that we’re seeing in the U.K. continues-higher, then we may have an attractive candidate for short-USD scenarios.

- GBP/JPY is in a short-term range with rather messy intermediate-term price action. We looked at two ‘barrier levels’ in order to gauge directional biases in GBP/JPY, and the under-side of price action highlights 138.41 and the top-side of price action offers 140.62 for bullish approaches.

- AUD/USD – entering a long-term zone of resistance. This could be a very interesting USD-reversal setup for those looking for bullish approaches in the Greenback.

- AUD/JPYwe looked at a short position as a response to a key area of resistance around 87.50-87.70.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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