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Trading Outlook Ahead of FOMC: DXY, Gold/Silver, Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More

Trading Outlook Ahead of FOMC: DXY, Gold/Silver, Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Paul conducts webinars Tuesday – Friday each week. For details and a full line-up of upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) in recent trade broke its multi-week sequence of higher lows and higher highs, putting it in a precarious position ahead of today’s FOMC rate announcement. With the market expecting a 25-bps increase it would seem an ultra-hawkish Fed would be required to push it higher. If the technical formation, what we focused on, has anything to say – it’s that USD is heading lower.

Our biggest interest lie in long EURUSD or short USDCHF positions if dollar weakness sets in. USDJPY has an intriguing set-up from the short-side, and is also high on the USD short radar. GBPUSD is still acting too weak for our taste as a long, but given the proximity of major support, risk/reward doesn’t look good either for a new short.

We also took a look at cross-rates – EURAUD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, GBPAUD, EURGBP, AUDNZD, USDMXN, and others…

With the notion of USD weakness in mind, precious metals – gold & silver – could find a bid towards noted resistance levels around 1217/low-17s. The broader bias is for lower prices once any bounce which may develop starts to roll over.

Crude oil put in a key reversal bar yesterday after coming down to support. A bounce in the near-term may develop, but overall lower prices still look like the most probable scenario.

The S&P 500 is holding onto a confluence of important trend-line support, while the Nasdaq 100 puts in a high-level consolidation; bias if for higher prices as long as support continues to hold. The DAX is putting trend-line support to the test, but as long as it holds a constructive outlook remains. The FTSE 100 is caught between lines of support and resistance, but as the case with the other indices we are still giving respect to the trend and support levels.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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