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Trading Outlook: USD, Cross-rates, Gold/Silver & More

Trading Outlook: USD, Cross-rates, Gold/Silver & More

2017-03-03 12:01:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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The US dollar continues to trek higher, crossing over an area of resistance in focus; DXY could be on its way to trading to new 14-yr highs. GBPUSD still has room to fall towards the 12100/000 area. EURUSD remains firmly entrenched in a downtrend, while AUDUSD which had been strong for several weeks finally buckles.

Cross-rates in focus are GBPJPY, NZDJPY, EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD, USDMXN, and USDZAR. Each has techs which provide a roadmap for potential trading opportunities looking out over the next few days.

Gold broke below a confluence of support, and looks to have more downside on the way. Silver struggled at resistance around 18.50, finally giving way to strong selling pressure. It sits on a key line of support right now, but with a little more weakness the door could be opened up for another thrust lower.

Crude oil sold off sharply in recent sessions, and looks poised to roll over more broadly speaking, but is sitting on support by way of the bottom-side of an ascending wedge. Should the underside crack, look for oil to take a spill as large speculators are holding a very large long position.

Generally, global indices are strong and don’t present a good opportunity for shorting, however; longs established at elevated levels are at risk without a consolidation period. The DAX is trading just below a confluence of resistance which will need to be overcome if it is to continue higher. There is good trend-line support on a pullback. The FTSE 100, so far, is holding onto Wednesday’s monster rally, a little breather here might be all it needs to trade to higher levels. The U.S. indices remain in bull-mode despite yesterday’s small set-back.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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