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Trading Outlook: US Dollar, Gold Price, Nikkei 225 & More

Trading Outlook: US Dollar, Gold Price, Nikkei 225 & More

2017-03-01 11:26:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

Paul conducts webinars every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. For details and a full line-up of all upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

In today’s webinar, we took a look at the US dollar (DXY) as it rides on the underside of an important parallel we’ve been focused on for some time now. It’s aiming higher, but not out of the woods yet for experiencing a turn lower. We took a look at several Yen crosses, as USDJPY turns up from support and the cross-rates challenge near-term trend-line resistance, which if broken could lead to larger moves ahead. Other crosses we took a look at were EURNZD, EURAUD, GBPNZD, AUDNZD, USDZAR, and USDMXN.

Gold is pulling back off a key trend-line, and now faces important trend test as the triangle it recently broke out from is under siege. A break of bottom-side trend-line support, given this backdrop, points to a larger decline ahead. Silver is holding its own, but facing off with strong resistance around 18.50, and if gold breaks down it is likely silver will soon follow suit. With that said, though, in silver we will continue to run with the upward channel until broken, and if it is so will our conviction from the long-side. Short may become the new long, then.

Crude oil is working closer and closer to the apex of an ascending wedge, we’ll continue to monitor but see little action which can be taken at this time.

Equity indices continue to be bullish. While the Nikkei hasn’t made any headway in a while, it is forming a really nice symmetrical triangle which suggests a big breakout (likely higher) is coming. The DAX is springing to life from trend-line support, while the FTSE is poised to run to new record highs. The same can be said for U.S. indices as the rally continues. Risk is rising, though, and there is some expectation we will see volatility rise this month.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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