Talking Points:
- Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes, Fed commentary may boost US Dollar
- British Pound may decline as BOE's Carney maintains dovish policy stance
- News-flow from Washington DC remains a threat to markets' risk appetite
A packed docket of scheduled commentary from Federal Reserve officials and the release of minutes from February's meeting of the rate-setting FOMC committee put US monetary policy speculation at the heart of price action in the week ahead. A hawkish tone mirroring last week's Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen may steepen the projected tightening path, sending the US Dollar higher.
New-flow from Washington, DC remains a potent source of headline risk however. Geopolitical jitters seemed to overshadow Fed policy bets in the second half of last week as markets worried about the debut of Trump administration officials on the international stage at a meeting of G20 foreign ministers, hurting risky assets and the greenback alike. A repeat performance remains a meaningful risk as investors acclimate to the new direction of US policy.
Looking beyond the US, a speech from BOE Governor Mark Carney may trigger fireworks. A dovish posture burnishing the MPC's favor of accommodation as formal Brexit activation nears despite rising inflation may hurt the British Pound. Eurozone CPI and PMI data as well as German GDP numbers may pass with little fanfare considering their seemingly limited implications for the ECB's near-term policy trajectory.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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