News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Retail traders appear to be reducing long exposure in the Euro after recent gains. This hints that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may rise in the near term, but could this trend last down the road? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Y1d4DXeKEE https://t.co/sD5elbDCWa
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.99%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.56%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Xopq2F0ZEs
  • (Crypto Tech Special) Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH) Analysis: Is Momentum Fading? #Bitcoin #BTC #Litecoin #LTC #Ethereum #ETH https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/04/15/Bitcoin-BTC-Litecoin-LTC-Ethereum-ETH-Analysis-Is-Momentum-Fading.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/RkduJG4S4C
  • The Dollar extended its slide this past session as Fed's Powell tried to soften the 'eventual taper' message. Ahead, we have US retail sales, more quarterly earnings (BLK, TSM, DAL), Turkish CB rate decision and China 1Q GDP. Targeted volatility ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/15/Dollar-Tumble-Continues-as-Powell-Deflects-Taper-Retail-Sales-Earnings-and-Crypto-Ahead.html https://t.co/NP6sWFeB7s
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/OKyitguR1H
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.13% FTSE 100: 0.13% US 500: 0.07% Germany 30: -0.08% France 40: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hKFGqiob3c
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Balance of Trade (MAR) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $1.64B Previous: $2.01B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • The USD was flat against SGD, THB, IDR and PHP as falling Treasury yields offset potential gains from Emerging Market Stock declines. Ahead, all eyes are on Chinese GDP, US CPI, Powell and the MAS. Get your $USD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/qwileJ3OUX https://t.co/E1CgQSp4xH
  • BOK's Lee: - Yields under close watch - Will be a "considerable time" before digital currency issuance - Growth potential may be much lower than it was before Covid - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.02% Silver: -0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qKzhq3VVN3
A Break of Strongest S&P 500 Rally in Three Years Isn't a Reversal Signal

A Break of Strongest S&P 500 Rally in Three Years Isn't a Reversal Signal

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The S&P 500 closed Thursday with a modest loss - breaking the index's longest bullish streak in three years

• With a remarkable consistency, record highs and impressive pace; it is enticing to suspect an equally dramatic reversal

• Breaks in extreme moves more often manifest as a pause rather than a catalyzed about face

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Extremes in markets tend to normalize over time. However, that doesn't mean a one-sided market is going to swing in the opposite direction at the same intensity as its initial build up. Stretch can come in both the form of a persistent course and exceptional activity level. Depending on the market and circumstances, it is far less common to see the market maintain an exceptional pace and forge a dramatic reversal. Such a development results in what is often referred to as a 'V top' or 'V bottom' - statistically uncommon events. The more frequent occurrence is the loss of momentum that renders direction less relevant as the market drift into a certain type of consolidation. As historically skewed as these disparate scenarios are, a drought of trading opportunities can lead to speculative mirages.

Risk trends and the S&P 500 promote just such an appetite. On the speculative side, skepticism has been on the rise with a divergence in the performance of risk-leaning assets and a fundamental backdrop that argues for far more caution than the market is operating with. Nevertheless, US equity indexes have charged to record highs on the back of a reckless bull. A drive to record highs has been punctuated with a seven-consecutive day rally by the S&P 500 that notched the longest bullish stretch in three years. For those that were sidelined through this post-election rally and through the most recent leg higher, the 'long overdue' correction seems a certain candidate for collapse that the diligent bear could jump on for quick profit. However, the assumption of a quick drawdown is about as virtuous as expecting a risk run against a lackluster fundamental backdrop.

This past session, one facet of the speculative advance finally came to a close. The S&P 500 would post its first lower daily close in eight sessions. That said, the day's retreat was bearish in the most technical sense. The slip would not whip the bears to a frenzy, and there was little depth or breadth to the correction. Without sentiment itself to build momentum, it would be difficult for this index, region or even asset class to forge its own way. Looking back over historical instances where similar runs and records were broken, there are far more examples of mere pause followed by a more tame second phase extension than there are dramatic reversals. How should we approach this most recent bull trend break? That is the focus of today's Strategy Video.

Please add a description for the image.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES