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Strategy Around a Coagulated U.S. Dollar

Strategy Around a Coagulated U.S. Dollar

2017-02-16 20:51:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, please check out our Speculative Sentiment Index Indicator (SSI).

Talking Points:

- U.S. Dollar price action has moved from previously smooth & strong trends (bullish in November/December, bearish in January, bullish again first half of February) into what has been rather messy; and in today’s webinar we look at how this week’s drivers priced-in to the Greenback.

- After Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen as day one of her twice-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, the Dollar had run aggressively-higher as near-term rate expectations were shooting higher. As we looked at in Tuesday’s webinar, we wanted to see a sustained break in DXY above the 101.53 level in order to move-forward with bullish strategies.

- Just ahead of day two of that testimony yesterday, U.S. CPI came-out at .6% for January versus the expectation of .3%; a healthy beat that further denotes recovery in the U.S. economy which could, potentially, bring on a rate hike ‘sooner rather than later’. This drove DXY above that 101.53 level, albeit briefly, before another major reversal began in USD.

- USD price action since Chair Yellen’s second day of testimony has been bearish, and this alludes to the fact that the longer-term bullish up-trend may not yet be ready for resumption, and given the ~month until the next FOMC meeting in March, we may see fresh lows in the Greenback before that bullish trend is ready to resume. Nonetheless, there is a very interesting support zone to evaluate in the range between 100-100.50 on DXY in the effort of longer-term trend-continuation prospects.

- In the effort of longer-term USD exposure, we looked at two different setups in USD/JPY and USD/CAD. USD/JPY has a very interesting batch of support in the ~80-pip range between 111.61 and 112.40. Support in this region could be very interesting: USD/CAD has seen quite a bit of support around the 1.3000 level, and that, too, can be interesting for bullish-Dollar plays.

- We then moved over to look at a reversal setup in AUD/JPY, after a fresh high above a confluent batch of resistance was met with a bearish engulfing pattern (today’s daily).

- We then looked at the other side of the Yen with a long GBP/JPY setup, utilizing the level of support around 141.00.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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