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Trading Outlook: USD-pairs, Gold/Silver, Crude Oil & S&P 500

Trading Outlook: USD-pairs, Gold/Silver, Crude Oil & S&P 500

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Paul conducts webinars every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. For details and a full line-up of upcoming live events, please see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

In today’s webinar, we discussed a few themes across major asset classes. One of our big focuses has been on the up-move in the US dollar, and whether it is sustainable or not. It’s getting to a critical point, so we may begin to see either an acceleration soon, and if not a turning point may be upon us. EUR/USD is in the dumps, but coming up on key support. GBP/USD is in a precarious spot, a move much below 12400 could accelerate selling. AUD/USD on the flip-side doesn’t care what the rest of the major USD-pairs are doing, as it coils up and prepares for a move; it’s high on the radar for a potential trade.

We looked at several cross-rates as well – EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, AUD/JPY, and a few others including USD/ZAR.

Precious metals have fared well despite dollar strength; especially silver which has risen with USD. The trend is up, but some caution is warranted here.

Crude oil continues to be quite volatile from one session to the next, but, overall, we are seeing a contraction in price, which is resulting in a developing wedge. Large speculators are very long the commodity, which suggests we could be in for a downside break, but we will wait for a break of the wedge before drawing any concrete conclusions.

U.S. equity indices are going nuts right now, with parabolic-like price action beginning to unfold, especially in the Nasdaq 100. With that said, we have no interest at this moment in chasing the market higher, but shorting is an even less appealing option. The expectation is that the market will cool off here soon and we’ll see choppy to downward price action. Europe still looks like it will hold a bid, with the DAX looking to test levels extending back to 2015.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above.

Trading Ideas and Guides

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.