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Video: Why AUD/CHF May Have More Attractive Qualities than GBP/USD

Video: Why AUD/CHF May Have More Attractive Qualities than GBP/USD

2017-01-25 05:07:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • An alignment of technicals, fundamentals and market conditions can offer the best trade opportunities
  • Yet, the convergence of two of these facets and absence of conflict with a third may offer more frequent opportunity
  • Fundamentals is the absent ingredient for great GBP/USD and AUDCHF setups, but the latter may still offer potential

What are the DailyFX analysts' top trading ideas for 2017 and key lessons to take away from 2016? Sign up for both on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The best trade opportunities are those with the highest probability and asymmetrical scenarios. To me, that is fulfilled when a market heavily skewed by speculation meets a confluence of technical, fundamental and market conditions looks to change the prevailing wind. As you can imagine, these situations are uncommon - as you would expect ideallic conditions to be. However, the pursuit of 'perfect' trades should not put us off 'good' ones.

Often times, when there is a compelling combination of two of the aforementioned analysis dynamics; there is an argument for a strong trade. However, it is crucial that that missing third component represent an encumbrance to the setup. A good example is GBP/USD. Given the pair's and market's general propensity for volatility, the wedge that has put pressure on a relatively tight range between 1.2550 and 1.2420 is likely to result in a near-term break. Yet, as with any break, follow through is called into question. Usually, fundamentals offer the most robust platform for drive after the technical hurdle is cleared; but that motivation isn't readily at hand. In fact, this third component represents an active conflict as US and UK 4Q GDP figures due later this week distract with expected volatility while not offering the promise to tap into the more productive themes driving their respective currencies. This creates a considerable liability for the Cable.

In contrast, when that missing ingredient represents less of an obstacle - or no obstacle at all - it can open up meaningful setups. An example of a pair that presents less of a liability than GBP/USD is AUD/USD. After a strong bullish charge, the market has seen a break of its trend on the back of a disappointing Aussie CPI. The catalyst for the technical break was supplied and retracing trend is the 'path of least resistance' (market conditions). Yet, there is still the uncertainty of US growth ahead. Further removing the impediment of fundamentals providing active curb is AUD/CHF. Well shaped technicals set up a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern at the top of a wide range and an appeal to move back into range. High profile event risk is minimal to distract from these other factors. We discuss the hallmark of 'good' versus 'great' trades in today's Strategy Video.

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A 4-Hour Chart of AUD/CHF

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.