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Webinar: Markets Flee From Trump Trade After Inauguration

Webinar: Markets Flee From Trump Trade After Inauguration

2017-01-23 10:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar under pressure as "Trump trade" unwind resumes
  • British Pound eyes Supreme Court Brexit ruling for direction
  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars may not find lasting lead in 4Q CPI data

The US Dollar is facing renewed selling pressure, gold prices are on the upswing and stocks are looking defensive as traders resume scaling back exposure to the so-called "Trump trade" after last week's inauguration. The absence of specifics about on-coming fiscal policy has cast doubt on prior speculation that a Trump administration will be positive for corporate earnings and encourage a steeper Fed rate hike cycle. The path of least resistance seems to favor more of the same.

The British Pound is focused on a UK Supreme Court decision that will establish whether the government of Prime Minister Theresa May has the authority to formally initiate "Brexit" by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This week's ruling will settle an appeal of a prior High Court decision that held that the administration must get clearance from Parliament. Upholding that view or even compounding it by asking for formal legislation may significantly slow UK/EU divorce proceedings.

Fourth-quarter CPI figures from Australia and New Zealand may spur near-term volatility but seem unlikely to generate lasting follow-through. As with most economy- and market-watchers, the RBA and the RBNZ probably want greater clarity on the probable impact of policies to be pursued by the Trump administration on global trade and the cost of credit (by way of indirectly influencing Fed policy) before shifting out of wait-and-see mode.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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